Predicting the World Baseball Classic: Round 1

Not all the rosters are set, but we can pretty much tell which teams will be contenders and which teams will not. In Round 1 within each pool, each team plays every other team in the pool once. The teams with the top two records from each pool advance to Round 2.

Pool A: China / Chinese Taipei / Japan / Korea
First of all, this will be the most fun bracket to watch simply to listen to the announcers try and pronounce these players’ names. The Korean team could conceivably have a lineup where every player had the last name of Kim, and the Taiwanese could field a team comprised completely of Chen’s. The picks to advance from this bracket are pretty obvious, with Japan grabbing the one seed and Korea taking the two seed.

Pool B: Canada / Mexico / South Africa / United States
This is arguably the toughest pool, with three contenders and the also-ran South Africans. The US will definitely advance as the one seed (at least they better, this is their tournament), but the second seed is a close one between the bookend countries of the US, Canada and Mexico. Canada can put together a respectable lineup that includes Jason Bay, Justin Morneau, Matt Stairs, and Corey Koskie. The Rockies youngster Jeff Francis anchors Team Canada’s staff with Erik Bedard as the only other decent-ish starter. Their relief corps should be strong with Reitsma, Cormier, Quantrill, and Crain. But Team Mexico looks to be a bit stronger with Dessens, Loaiza, Mitre, Oliver Perez, and Oscar Villareal anchoring their staff, and Vinny Castilla, Durazo, and a host of other moderately good hitters on the field. Their experience in a tournament like this (the Caribbean Series) will give them an edge. So the US and Mexico advance from Pool B.

Pool C: Cuba / Netherlands / Panama / Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico will easily take the top seed here, but the rest of the field should make it an exciting battle for the second seed. No one really knows what to expect from Cuba, but they could be very good if Castro lets the right team show up. Panama has a host of fringe major leaguers to support Carlos Lee, but it will not be enough to over take Team Netherlands. As I’ve written before, this rag-tag group of islanders led by Andruw Jones and Mark Mulder are going to be a fun bunch to watch. The Dutch grab the two seed behind Puerto Rico.

Pool D: Australia / Dominican Republic / Italy / Venezuela
There are two power house teams in this pool, the DR and Venezuela. The Dominicans should easily win the top seed here, with the Venezuelans on their heels in the two seed. The games between these two teams may constitute the most exciting rivalry of the tournament. Venezuela is coming off of a surprising upset of the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Series. Of course, the monster hitters that should be on Team DR in the WBC were not on the CS team. Australia and/or Italy in any other division might have had a chance to make it out of the first round.

. . . Coming up tomorrow, Round 2 predictions. . .