NL Central

Cardinals (98 – 64): This was a very strong club that actually got a bit weaker. On the field they replaced Mark Grudzielanek, Larry Walker, and Reggie Sanders with Junior Spivey, Juan Encarnacion, and Larry Bigbie. If we take their career OPS and average them together then the Cardinals are trading an average OPS of .846 for .758. If we take the average of last year’s OPS then they are trading .837 for .676. Those are quite significant drop-offs, and you can bet that they will translate to the amount of runs the Cards score. But with a healthy Rolen the entire season, along with some guy named Poo-Holes, they should score enough runs to be very competitive. Matt Morris will not be as hard to replace as some think. Last year he was only about as good as Jason Marquis and not as good as Jeff Suppan. They should have plenty of depth with Sidney Ponson competing with youngster Anthony Reyes for the last spot in the rotation. Now we’ll see if Duncan and La Russa can actually develop a pitcher, something they have never really had much success at doing (save for the recently departed Matt Morris). DIVISION WINNER

Brewers (90 – 72): Every year a club surprises people, and in 2006 it is going to be the Milwaukee Brewers. They are vastly underrated by many people around baseball. A lot will depend on how their youngsters fare in their first full major league season. But with the big bat of Carlos Lee in the middle of the order, all Ned Yost has to do is pencil in the pieces around him. They will by a dynamic team with speed throughout the order and the willingness to use it. Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy will form the core of the Brew-crew for years to come. Sheets, Davis, and Capuano are the front three of one of the least appreciated starting rotations in baseball. They will continue to improve under the tutelage of perhaps the best young pitching coach in the business, Mike Maddux. The addition to the coaching staff of Brewer legend Robin Yount will have a profound impact on this young team’s character. WILD CARD WINNER

Astros (88 – 74): I may be undervaluing the ‘Stros a bit. After all, they did go all the way to the World Series in 2005. And they are bound to have a healthy Lance Berkman for the entire season. But this team has been really lucky the past few years, and that’s not just the jaded Braves fan in me talking. Miraculous comebacks and an abnormal Beltran postseason aside, this team has limped into the postseason and scratched and clawed their way from one round to the next. Their consistency on offense will be tested this year as the rest of the division gets stronger and more competitive. There is no doubt that Pettitte and Oswalt may be the best 1-2 pitching combination in all of baseball, but after them there is a sharp drop-off. Brandon Backe has stints of brilliance, but overall he’s a fourth starter at best. After him they will fill in with youngsters Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio. The departure (at least until May) of Roger Clemens will impact this team more than most people think. His 26 quality starts will be next to impossible to replace; Backe, Rodriquez, and Astacio had 25 between them last year. Even if he returns in May, his one month absence may be enough to keep the Astros from making the postseason.

Cubs (84 – 78): Dusty Baker is the most overrated manager in baseball. He doesn’t know how to handle a pitching staff, and he doesn’t know how to develop young players. Prior and Wood have had injuries each of the last two years, will this be Zambrano’s year to stumble. Regardless of if he gets hurt or not, Zambrano’s home runs allowed are headed in an alarming direction over the last three years: 9, 14, 21. And he is relying more and more on the strikeout (K/9): 7.07, 8.07, 8.14. Greg Maddux will pitch as long as you let him, but over the last four years his effectiveness is slipping (ERA): 2.62, 3.96, 4.02, 4.24. The loveable losers will keep on losing, and Baker will keep on chewing on that toothpick.

Pirates (78 – 84): These guys have vastly improved themselves. They finally realized they needed to surround Bay with more than the Wilson boys. Sean Casey’s respected veteran presence will have an amazing impact on this club. He will help youngsters like Chris Duffy, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Castillo come into their own. Their pitching has a lot of promise with Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, but guys like Oliver Perez and Kip Wells might be headed in the wrong direction and need to find some consistency. This team is getting better, but it is still a year or two away from being competitive.

Reds (68 – 94): They must not believe in an investment in pitching. This team, with a surplus of good hitting, made only one trade to try and improve the NL’s worst pitching staff. And the acquisition of the mediocre Dave Williams for well-respected slugger Sean Casey seemed more like a salary dump than a move to improve their staff. The only real question this year is who will lead the team in home runs; slugger Adam Dunn who hit 40 HR last season, or sluggers best friend pitcher Eric Milton, who surrendered 40 HR last season. And don’t try to blame Milton’s gopher ball problem on the GAB, his home / road HR allowed split reads 21 / 19. If you’re a baseball fan who likes home runs, go to a Reds game and you’ll see plenty.