Tuesday, January 10, 2006

NL East

Braves (95 – 67): Who else did you expect me to pick to win the East. They won it last year with a rag-tag group of kids from AA. The only question is how are they going to engineer it this season. Will they win with pitching in the post Leo Mazzone era? Will they win with hitting now that AJ has proven he can hit 50 dingers? How much better will they be if Chipper is healthy for an entire season? They are still a team with holes in the bullpen and left field, but holes on this team are just opportunities for creativity from Schu and Cox. The Braves are still very young, and that can be a plus as well as an obstacle. Look for the rest of the East to be scratching their heads in late September wondering how it is the Braves have bested them once again. DIVISION WINNER

Mets (89 – 73): These guys are going to be the ones really scratching their heads and wondering what went wrong. They added Pedro and Beltran last year and it wasn’t enough. They’ve added Delgado and Wagner this year, but will that be enough to close the gap? They will put up more runs this year, but they will only go as far as their starting pitching takes them. After Pedro, every other starter has some questions surrounding him. Does Glavine have another year left in him? Can Benson, Zambrano, and Trachsel be more than back of the rotation starters with ERAs in the fours? Jose Reyes will have to learn how to get on base at more than a .300 clip, because with his speed and the bats behind him, when he gets on base he scores. Make no mistake about it, if he isn’t already, David Wright will become the star of this team.

Phillies (81 – 81): Who is the real Bobby Abreu? Is he the batter that slugged out 18 home runs before the break and put on a show to win the home run derby, or is he the batter that only hit 6 home runs the rest of the way. Can Ryan Howard be the run producer everyone thinks he will be? What’s alarming about his numbers last year is that in only 348 plate appearances he stuck out 100 times. Over a 162 game season that works out to around 171 strikeouts, which would have led the majors last year. Not that recently departed Jim Thome was any better, as he has topped 170 strikeouts four times in his career. But Thome knew how to draw a walk as well as strikeout; Howard has not yet learned that. But the real question with this team is how will the pitching hold up in what is considered by some to be Coors Field East. And how will Tom Gordon react if he blows a couple of saves in a row and the fans in Philly let him have it.

Nationals (74 – 88): Was anyone worse last year than Cristian Guzman? Maybe they’ll put Soriano at short and keep Vidro at second. This team didn’t get any better with the additions of Soriano and pitcher Brian Lawrence. The player they will miss the most is Brad Wilkerson. Even though he took a small step back last year, he was still the spark that ignited that team. Can Ryan Church take his place in the lineup and give them that spark? The window of opportunity for Tony Armas Jr. and Ryan Drese to prove they are effective major league starting pitchers is closing fast.

Marlins (41 – 121): Well, I’m glad to see that Wes Helms found a job. And it’s better than being stuck in AAA, although the Marlins are going to seem like a minor league club this year. Seriously can anyone pencil in half of their starting lineup. How about their starting rotation. After Dontrelle and the uncompromisingly below average Brian Mohler, the entire 40-man roster has only started a total of 42 major league games. Perhaps their slogan should be, “Willis and Mohler, and anyone else with a shoulder.”

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