Sosa as Closer

Some people have suggested that Jorge Sosa may wind up as the Braves closer this year. Unfortunately, these same people also think that an inverse progression in blackjack is a good idea. I offer up some numbers to try and dissuade some people from thinking that Sosa would be a good closer.

Sosa’s season last year can best be described as abnormally lucky. Perhaps that’s why he was nicknamed Jorge Houdini by Braves’ TV and radio announcers. So what constitutes his luck? After all in 24 games as a reliever in 2005, Sosa posted a 2.31 ERA. But in those 24 games (27.1 innings) as a reliever he gave up 24 hits and issued 19 walks, while only striking out 17. That’s an alarming number of base runners for a reliever.

Let’s take what I consider an important indicator for relievers, and closers in particular; the first 15 pitches they throw in a ballgame and the batters’ results from those pitches. The first 15 pitches set the tone for any reliever’s outing. I’ve compared three other Braves from last year. Of course some of Sosa’s stats are going to be as a starter, but they are still indicative of what happens when he enters a game.

Pitches 1-15 Results (Hits + Walks / Plate Appearances = % of runners reached base):
Sosa – 32 H + 20 BB / 134 PA = 39%
Kolb – 54 H + 20 BB / 197 PA, = 38%
Reitsma – 64 H + 12 BB / 251 PA = 30%
Farnsworth – 31 H + 19 BB / 200 PA = 25%

Let’s just look at walks as an indicator of control over the first 15 pitches:
Sosa – 20 BB / 134 PA = 15%
Kolb – 20 BB / 197 PA = 10%
Reitsma – 12 BB / 251 PA = 5%
Farnsworth – 19 BB / 200 = 9.5%

From the first set of numbers (which is essentially on-base percentage), we can see that Sosa was not even as good as Dan Kolb when he first enters a game, allowing almost 40 percent of the hitters he faced to reach base, and walking every seventh batter. As we learned last year, this is not the kind of closer we want. From these numbers we can also infer that as lucky as Sosa was, Kolb was just as unlucky.

Sosa translates better as a starter because as the game moves on he settles down and issues fewer walks and gets more batters out. A starter is better equipped to deal with control problems early in the game. Even if he gives up a run or two early he has the ability to settle into a rhythm and pitch well for several more innings. Here are his pitches to % of runners reached base for the next 75 pitches:

Pitches 16 – 30: 18 H + 12 BB / 116 PA = 26%
Pitches 31 – 45: 12 H + 5 BB / 82 PA = 21%
Pitches 46 – 60: 19 H + 13 BB / 74 PA = 43%
Pitches 61 – 75: 21 H + 6 BB / 77 PA = 35%
Pitches 76 – 90: 17 H + 6 BB / 56 PA = 41%

He settles down dramatically from 16 to 45 pitches, but then he becomes a bit more hittable. I would imagine this is because he was only used sparingly as a starter the previous three years with Tampa Bay. After starting more games in one year than he has in any single year before in the Major Leagues in 2005, his arm strength should begin to rebound and we will hopefully see him able to go deeper into ballgames with better results in 2006. So Sosa’s value is as a starter and not a closer or reliever. That wildness and lack of control just after he enters a ball game will catch up with him as a reliever, but can be overcome as a starter.