A Ballpark View

New Digs

2006-04-07T12:00:00.000-05:00

It’s been a short run for A Ballpark View, but I have decided to shut it down and move my talents (?) over to Talking Chop. It has been a great opportunity that was given to me by longtime TC blogger Joe Hamrahi to be his supporting blogger. Talking Chop has wider readership and a better layout, and quite frankly I like writing over there better.

I still have season tickets to the Bravos, and I will be posting stories of my misadventures in the cheap seats at TC on a regular basis. Thanks to everyone who has checked in with me over the last few months, and I hope you will continue to read my daily blather over at my new home, Talking Chop.

Thanks!

Making the Team Meter Gets a Shocker

2006-04-01T14:55:00.000-05:00

The MTM formally ranked Joey Devine as a lock to make the roster, but as the roster is set this weekend, we find out that Joey will start the season at AAA. Boyer’s late spring recovery helps him make the team, along with Lance Cormier and lefty Chuck James. Another surprise addition to the bullpen is John Thompson, who moves from the starting rotation and will pitch in relief to start the season. Reitsma, Villarreal, and Remlinger fill out the 7 man bullpen.

The organization wants Devine to go down to Richmond and close. This is a tough one for me since I figured he was so impressive this spring that they would want him to grow with the big league club. Devine proved last year, by making the postseason roster, that he was ready.

On the bench side of the roster, the veteran Brian Jordan gets the nod over rookie James Jurries. Jurries did just about all one can possibly do to make the team, hitting .447 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs to lead the team, all better numbers than Jordan.

Most people around the team know that we’ll see both Jurries and Devine in the majors at some point this season, but it is still tough to see them not get an opening day roster spot. Hopefully both of them will not let this disappointment affect their game, and can continue putting up numbers like they did this spring.

Some people will be disappointed to see Jordan make it over Jurries, but on a team that is already filled with young players it’s a smart move to fill the bench with at least one veteran. A bench role is also not the right role for a young player like Jurries who has the talent to start at the major league level. Usually young sluggers like J.J. have their timing at the plate messed up by infrequent at-bats coming off the bench. I like the pick of Jordan over Jurries, though I do feel bad that the latter did not make the squad after the spring he had.

Once Around the Horn as the Boys Head North

2006-03-31T16:21:00.000-05:00

It’s almost the baseball season. . . for real. No more of these ‘get my work in’ exhibition games. We only have two more days of pretend games before the real season starts. Let’s take a spin around the NL East and see what our enemies are up to, com’on kids.

The New York Mess

This spring has seen the Mets work their way through injuries, and that will be the paper mache dam that holds back the flood of mediocrity during the season. Odds are Pedro will be fine, despite his toe, but the real concerns should be with Billy Wagner and whether his finger can survive the entire season. Matsui is already out, replaced by Anderson Hernandez, and even when he does come back will he live up to his once raved about potential. But will the rotation hold up with an aged Tom Glavine, a hobbled Pedro, and the severe averageness of Trachsel and Zambrano. Their pitching will make or break the team this year.

The Philadelphia Phooey’s

Ryan Howard has certainly announced his presence this spring, and is not making anyone regret trading Thome. Howard though, may be the new Rob Deer, an all or nothing hitter as evidenced by his spring numbers of 10 out of 26 hits going for home runs and 21 Ks in 78 at-bats. With whiff machines Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu, and newly acquired whiff machine Aaron Roward they should hit a lot of home runs and strike out a whole lot more. Can Gavin Floyd, who has had a great spring, finally put it together during the regular season?

The Freshman Fish

The only question will be whether they will eclipse the amount of rookies the Braves used last year. One thing is certain, the results won’t be the same. There should be a lot of excitement for this young team with Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, and Josh Willingham. And don’t forget Miggy and D-Train.

The Washington No-Shows

Will Soriano play left field? Will he be happy there? Who really gives a crap? Soriano as a left fielder in that park will be about as good as Raul Ibanez. The good news for the Nats is that Christian Guzman, he of the .219 average a year ago, will be on the DL to start the season. The bad news, he’s being replaced by Royce Clayton (the good news about him is that he’s cut off the stupid locks he was sporting last year). After Livan Hernandez and John Patterson the rotation is a shallow wasteland.

. . . and the good guys:

The Atlanta Bravos

The Braves have a well balanced team of veterans and young players, a mix they have used successfully for a decade and a half. They will have to survive the annual bullpen trials again this season, and it seems as though they will have to either suffer or enjoy the extreme streakiness of Jeff Francoeur. A full season of Chipper getting on base in front of Andruw should make for a strong middle of the order. How much will Furcal be missed, or will his departing have the same non-effect that Drew, Sheffield, Maddux, and Glavine’s had.

If you haven’t already, call in sick on Monday and spend the day watching the full slate of games on ESPN. It’s gonna be fun.

What I’ll be Doing on Monday, April 3rd

2006-03-29T11:43:00.000-05:00

Is it a holiday? Why yes it is. The holiest of all holidays for baseball fans – it’s Opening Day. I have the day off, and plan to use it thusly:

11:00 am – Wake up.
12:00 pm – Baseball Tonight on ESPN
1:00 pm – First game of the day has the Nats at the Mets on ESPN
2:00 pm – Red Sox at the Rangers on ESPN2
4:00 pm – My Braves at the Dodgers on ESPN
7:00 pm – Giants at Padres on ESPN2
10:00 pm – Yankees at A’s on ESPN2

It is quite possibly baseball overload, but I don’t care – baseball season is finally here!

Cards Selling Seats

2006-03-28T10:38:00.000-05:00

For those collectors out there, the St. Louis Cardinals are selling the seats from the old Busch Stadium. They are being sold in pairs. Of course they have Cardinal red available (pictured above), but they also have upper upper deck green, and luxury box black. Since I already have two pairs of seats from other stadiums, I am trying to hold back the temptation to buy another pair. My first pair of seats is from the old Atlanta Fulton County stadium and they are awesome neon orange. My second pair is from Dodger stadium, from last year when they switched out all the seats, and they are Dodger red (huh?). In retrospect, I should have insisted upon Dodger blue or nothing, but I believe they were already out of Dodger blue when I got around to buying them. This puts me in a difficult position with regards to any possible St. Louis seat purchase. Since I already have red ones and orange ones, I don’t really want another set of red ones, but then what is the point of getting Cardinal seats if they aren’t red. I may be forced to paint my Dodger seats, which are in rather bad condition, and when I do I can make them Dodger blue. Anyway, it’s something I’m rolling around in my head.

Braves Make Second Round of Cuts

2006-03-24T16:32:00.000-05:00

Anthony Lerew may have been the only surprise cut yesterday, though the way he pitched early in spring it was apparent that he needs more work. But he’s a power arm that we should see at some point later in the year in Atlanta.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia turned a lot of heads this spring, but any hype about him possibly making the team was rather overblown. He’ll go down to AA and collect as many at bats as he can, and may even start to work some at first.
Dave Kelton and Michael Ryan have started to play decent, but it was already too late to challenge Diaz, Jurries, or Jordan. If they accept minor league assignments then they will provide good depth in the minors for Atlanta.
Sean White, and to some extent Chad Paronto had both pitched decently this spring. The organization wants White to start in the minors, and Paronto will provide relief depth in case it is needed.
Steve Pyzik, Cesar Crespo, Travis Smith, and Wes Obermueller were also exiled to minor league camp.

One and a Half Weeks to go MTM Update

2006-03-23T15:23:00.000-05:00

We’re down to the last week and a half. There should be another round of cuts coming up today, but I’ve already made my cuts. The battles are down to only a few players; James and Jordan for the last bench spot, and Lerew and Cormier for the last bullpen spot.

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

OUT Blaine Boyer, rhp / He will start the season on the DL, even though he holds out hope that he can be ready. (Previously ▼)
▲ Lance Cormier, rhp / Has his roughest outing so far. Hopefully this is no cause for concern. (Previously ▲)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / This start virtually solidifies his spot in the rotation. He has been the best starter this spring, and everyone is certain that the Braves will either move Thompson, Ramirez, or Sosa to make room for the talent of Davies as a starter in the majors. (Previously ▲)
LOCK Joey Devine, rhp / His roughest outing this spring; no strikeouts and he gave up a gopher ball. The home run ball seems to be a lingering problem for him which he needs to solve. I still think he’s the number three guy in the pen. (Previously LOCK)
▲ Chuck James, lhp / Great outing from James, made one mistake to LoDuca, but he was solid through four. Might get that bullpen spot unless the Braves pull off a trade. (Previously ▲)
– Anthony Lerew, rhp / Another promising outing for Lerew as he continues to bounce back from a horrible start to his spring. He is still suspect as to whether he makes the team. If the Braves go the trade route then he is probably the odd man out. (Previously –)
OUT Macay McBride, lhp / He now has not pitched in three weeks, it’s almost a certainty that he will start the season on the DL. What’s more troubling is that Cox says “It's an injury we haven't seen before, a little muscle tear around the wrist. It's a concern, because we were counting on him to be a big part of the bullpen.” (Previously ▲)
LOCK Oscar Villarreal, rhp / Solid outing makes him a lock for the pen. (Previously ▲)
▲ James Jurries, 1b / Continues to hit like he belongs in the majors. Good sign for him in this game is that he got the start and two hits against the left hander Williams. It’s going to be hard to overlook a guy who is hitting well over .400 with power this spring. (Previously –)
LOCK Matt Diaz, of / Shows some speed to go along with the power and the fielding. DOB called him a lock, and that’s good enough for me. (Previously ▲)

Non-roster invitees

▲ Mike Remlinger, lhp / Got touched up for a run, but still looks like a lock for the pen with all the injuries to our other left-handers. Only a trade for another lefty may keep him from the pen. (Previously ▲)
▲ Brian Jordan, of / Steals another base! Would someone tell this guy he’s almost 40 years old. Cox keeps running him out there virtually every game to see if he’ll hold up, and he’s not showing signs of breaking down yet. (Previously ▲)

Off the radar and bound for the minors: Chad Paronto, rhp; Dave Kelton, of; Michael Ryan, of; Kelly Johnson, of; Wes Obermueller, rhp.
Opening the season on the disabled list: John Foster, lhp.
Previously bound for retirement: Eddie Perez, c.
Previously off the radar Brad Baker, rhp; Scott Thorman, 1b; Kevin Barry, rhp; Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c; Jose Ascanio, rhp; Brayan Pena, c; Jonathan Schuerholz, ss; Martin Prado, 2b; Travis Smith, rhp; Sean White, rhp; Steve Pyzik, c; Clint Sammons, c; Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss.

Irish MTM Update

2006-03-17T19:13:00.000-05:00

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

▼ Blaine Boyer, rhp / Threw on the side to batters on Tuesday and felt good. Still needs to have some good outings in games before he makes the team. (Previously ▼)
▲ Lance Cormier, rhp / Still pitching great. (Previously ▲)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / Peter Gammons thinks the Braves will make room for Davies in the rotation before the season starts: The Braves reportedly will move John Thomson or Horacio Ramirez to make room for Kyle Davies. One rumor is Thomson to the Mets for Victor Diaz, but it seems hard to believe that the Braves would give a starting pitcher to the Mets. His latest start against Houston was a decent one, he worked his way in and out of trouble. (Previously ▲)
LOCK Joey Devine, rhp / More and more rumblings about him making the jump to the closer’s role. He is now a lock to make the team. (Previously ▲)
OUT John Foster, lhp / He’s not going to start the season due to an inflamed nerve in his pitching arm. The plan is to rest him a month or so, and see how if feels after that. He will not start the season with the club, though. (Previously ▼)
▲ Chuck James, lhp / With some good outings, he could sneak his way into the bullpen. (Previously –)
– Anthony Lerew, rhp / Finally puts a solid outing together. Then has a rough one, but keep in mind that all of the trouble came in his second inning of work. This was the same M.O. he followed last season, as I’ve pointed out before. He is very effective in his first inning of work out of the pen, but it all falls apart if he pitches a second inning. I’ll take the positives from his last two outings and say his odds of making the pen are about even right now. (Previously ▼)
▲ Macay McBride, lhp / Has not pitched in quite some time due to a strained muscle in his left forearm. (Previously ▲)
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / Finally got in another WBC game, and pitched 2 innings of stellar relief. (Previously ▲)
– James Jurries, 1b / Still putting in good work. I wonder, though, if Cox and company will decide to go with the guys that have major league experience like Kelton, Ryan, or Jordan over a raw rookie like Jurries. That may also lead them to use a first base platoon less than in recent years, and give LaRoche a real shot at playing every day. (Previously ▲)
▲ Matt Diaz, of / Still hitting, slugs out his third spring homer to lead the team. He’s almost a lock at this point. (Previously ▲)
– Kelly Johnson, of / A hit and a walk, he keeps making his case. (Previously –)

Non-roster invitees

▼ Wes Obermueller, rhp / Another Ooff-ermueller type outing, 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 earned, unless we’re desperate he’s not making the team. (Previously ▼)
▼ Chad Paronto, rhp / Couldn’t work his way out of trouble. But had a good second outing. (Previously –)
▲ Mike Remlinger, lhp / With Foster possibly lost for the season, this is exactly the outing that Remlinger needed (followed by another good one). His stock takes a huge boost, as he is the only healthy lefty standing at the moment. (Previously ▼)
▲ Brian Jordan, of / Showing some speed, not bad. (Previously ▲)
– Dave Kelton, of / He’s still plugging away, and slowly getting more hits and getting better. (Previously ▼)
– Michael Ryan, of / He’s also still plugging away, and slowly getting more hits and getting better. (Previously ▼)

Off the radar and bound for the minors: Brad Baker, rhp; Scott Thorman, 1b; Kevin Barry, rhp; Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c. Previously bound for retirement: Eddie Perez, c. Previously off the radar Jose Ascanio, rhp; Brayan Pena, c; Jonathan Schuerholz, ss; Martin Prado, 2b; Travis Smith, rhp; Sean White, rhp; Steve Pyzik, c; Clint Sammons, c; Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss.

The Tickets Arrive

2006-03-16T20:27:00.000-05:00

My season tickets arrived in the mail today, and as you can see below they are bound in snazzy booklet form. This is by far the fanciest upper deck outfield tickets have ever looked. I can’t wait for the season to start.

Et tu, Brute?

2006-03-15T15:18:00.000-05:00

The Braves make their first cuts of the spring on this ill-fated day.

Brad Baker is the minor league closer that came over from the Padres organization. He had an awful spring, so it’s not surprising that he was optioned to AAA.
Scott Thorman opted to play for his home country of Canada in the WBC, but got only one at bat, and was not impressive upon his return to camp. I hope he enjoyed the WBC, because it probably cost him a shot at making the big club.
Luis Hernandez, Martin Prado, and Josh Burrus were optioned to AA. Prado impressed some folks this spring, and will be on the radar of many in the organization throughout the year.
Jose Ascanio was sent to high-A ball. He was a long shot to make the pen, and he got plenty of good opportunities, but had some rough outings early. He’s got great raw talent that we may end up seeing in the majors before too long.
Kevin Barry, Clint Sammons, and Jonathan Schuerholz were all assigned to minor league camp to be distributed to different levels later on. All of those guys should end up at AAA, save for maybe Sammons who could be at AA. Barry was having a decent spring, he certainly wasn’t wowing anyone, but he was doing a decent job.

The next cuts will probably come towards the middle of next week soon after we get all of our players back from the WBC.

Ides of March Eve MTM Update

2006-03-14T09:00:00.000-05:00

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

▼ Brad Baker, rhp / He’s not pitching like he wants a job, 9 ER in 5.1 IP – yikes! (Previously ▼)
▼ Blaine Boyer, rhp / He should be ready to pitch in a game soon. Remember, this type of injury (shoulder inflammation) is a tough one to recover from, and can linger for quite some time. (Previously ▼)
▲ Lance Cormier, rhp / Good outing, again. (Previously ▲)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / If Horacio Ramirez and/or John Thompson continue to pitch poorly, and Davies continues his impressive spring, he may be hard to overlook for a spot in the rotation. (Previously ▲)
▲ Joey Devine, rhp / Get’s back on track with a five strikeout exclamation point. He needs to keep it up, but at this point he’s a lock to make the pen. He also leads all major league pitchers this spring in strikeouts with 14 in only 7 innings. With those sort of numbers he’s put himself in the mix for the closer’s role. (Previously ▲)
▼ John Foster, lhp / Has not gotten in a game in a while, and I can’t find out what’s wrong with him, but I assume it’s just some aches and pains. Update: He's got shoulder inflamation and it might be more. He seems to be leaning towards having Tommy John Surgury, and would therefore be out all season. (Previously ▼)
– Chuck James, lhp / Good, but not great. He’s not as good as Davies at this point, and that means he’ll most likely begin the season at AAA. But, with Sosa away at the WBC for another week, James will get another chance or two to show his stuff off. (Previously –)
▼ Anthony Lerew, rhp / He must turn it around before he loses confidence. (Previously ▼)
▲ Macay McBride, lhp / He hasn’t been in a game in a while and this is why: Left-hander Macay McBride has some soreness between the foream and wrist of his pitching arm, but manager Bobby Cox didn't sound very concerned. "We'll let him rest a few days," Cox said. "If he was forced to pitch, he could." This shouldn’t hurt his chances of making the team. These spring aches and pains are common. (Previously ▲)
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / He hasn’t pitched since he gave up that home run to Chipper last Tuesday. Hopefully he’s not injured. (Previously ▲)
▲ James Jurries, 1b / At the halfway point of the spring, Jurries looks like a lock to make the club. He is helped greatly by his right-handed status, as he would slot perfectly into a platoon with LaRoche. (Previously ▲)
▼ Scott Thorman, 1b / Yay, a hit. He needs to start getting more than one at bat per game to prove himself. The WBC may have cost him that shot. (Previously ▼)
▲ Matt Diaz, of / He keeps hitting. At least one beat writer thinks he’s a lock for the opening day roster. (Previously ▲)
– Kelly Johnson, of / He is slowly collecting hits and working his way back into the outfield mix. (Previously ▼)

Non-roster invitees

▲ Kevin Barry, rhp / Another decent outing, 2 Ks, 2 hits, something good, something bad. Barry’s a tough one to figure for the bullpen. It’s been much like this last game the whole spring for him, 5 G, 5 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 W, 7K. That makes him hard to pin down since he’s been giving up hits but escaping damage (quite Sosa-esque). I’m going to bump him up though, because at this point in spring you’re supposed to be separating yourself from the pack, and he seems to be doing that. (Previously –)
▼ Wes Obermueller, rhp / Ooff-ermueller finally showed some of what made him a back of the rotation starter with an ERA north of 5 in the major leagues. (Previously ▼)
Chad Paronto, rhp / (Previously –)
▼ Mike Remlinger, lhp / Unless he completely turns it around, his career look like it’s at an end. His line this spring is scary: 3 G, 2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 W, 1K. (Previously ▼)
▼ Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c / Continues to crush the ball and impress people, still need some work on his spring average. Nonetheless, this spring Salty has announced his presence in the organization, and proven his top prospect pedigree. If he continues his onslaught in the minors, he will arrive in the majors just after the All-Star game. (Previously –)
▲ Brian Jordan, of / Keeps getting it done. (Previously ▲)
▼ Dave Kelton, of / Getting plenty of at-bats, but not getting any hits. (Previously ▼)
▼ Michael Ryan, of / You can’t make errors in a field this good and hope to make the team. (Previously –)

Off the radar and bound for the minors: Jonathan Schuerholz, ss. Bound for retirement: Eddie Perez, c. Previously off the radar Jose Ascanio, rhp; Brayan Pena, c; Martin Prado, 2b; Travis Smith, rhp; Sean White, rhp; Steve Pyzik, c; Clint Sammons, c; Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss;.

Pre-Sopranos MTM Update

2006-03-11T18:39:00.000-05:00

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

▼ Brad Baker, rhp / He got shelled again. He’s not impressing. (Previously ▼)
▼ Blaine Boyer, rhp / His scheduled date to make his first appearance of the spring keeps getting pushed back. He continues to feel discomfort in his shoulder and may not be ready to open the season. It’s still early, but it’s looking more likely that he’ll have to go to extended spring training, and join the team later in April. This may potentially open up another spot in the bullpen for one of the many pitchers vying for a spot. (Previously –)
▲ Lance Cormier, rhp / He continues to put in good work. Bobby Cox is impressed: "He's got one of the best curveballs in camp, and he's sneaky-quick, in the low 90s [mph]," Cox said, noting that Cormier has good command of four pitches: cutter, curveball, changeup and fastball. (Previously ▲)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / Another excellent outing, he is making his case for a rotation spot. If he continues like this he will be hard to overlook. (Previously ▲)
▲ Joey Devine, rhp / He gave up an alarming number of hits, but it was during the second inning of his two inning performance. (Previously ▲)
John Foster, lhp / (Previously ▼)
Chuck James, lhp / (Previously –)
▼ Anthony Lerew, rhp / Two rough outings in a row for Lerew, might have the team wondering if he is ready. His stock takes a sharp dive. (Previously ▲)
Macay McBride, lhp / (Previously ▲)
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / The Chipper homer aside, he is pitching well. (Previously ▲)
▲ James Jurries, 1b / Showing some spring power. He’ll be slowed for the next few days because of some minor injuries. . . or maybe he won’t. (Previously –)
▼ Scott Thorman, 1b / Not getting at-bats with Team Canada means he has less of an opportunity to win a spot. (Previously ▼)
▲ Matt Diaz, of / It may be his good defense that helps him make the team. So far, he’s making all the right plays to help his chances. As the spring moves on, he’ll play some first which will add versatility and help his chances at making the team. Right now, he is the front runner for the 4th outfield spot since he’s playing well, already on the 40-man roster, and because the Braves made a point of going out and acquiring him this off-season. His hitting is not lacking either. (Previously –)
▼ Kelly Johnson, of / He’s been one of the many fighting the flu. But you can’t impress if you don’t play. (Previously ▼)

Non-roster invitees

– Kevin Barry, rhp / Two good innings of work, as he continues to have a good spring. (Previously –)
▼ Wes Obermueller, rhp / An okay outing on Friday. (Previously ▼)
– Chad Paronto, rhp / A rough first inning for Chad, but he righted the ship in his second inning of work. He’s a big guy who some think will not make the roster. He followed up with a good outing. (Previously ▲)
▼ Mike Remlinger, lhp / Still not able to get it together. (Previously ▼)
▼ Eddie Perez, c / Has not yet gotten in a game. (Previously ▼)
– Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c / He is beginning his first base odyssey, but his hitting is slowing down. Great article about him here. (Previously –)
▼ Jonathan Schuerholz, ss / Hitting wise, he’s making the best of his playing time this spring, and slammed another home run. But his fielding needs a lot of work, as he has committed three errors on Thursday. He’s headed off the radar. (Previously ▼)
▲ Brian Jordan, of / He handled first base like a pro his first time out. (Previously ▲)
▼ Dave Kelton, of / The O-fer’s are mounting, and he is being overshadowed by the other outfield contenders. (Previously –)
– Michael Ryan, of / It’s an uphill battle for this non-roster outfielder, but he’s starting to do some hitting. (Previously ▼)

Off the radar and bound for the minors: Jose Ascanio, rhp; Brayan Pena, c; Martin Prado, 2b; Travis Smith, rhp. Previously off the radar: Sean White, rhp; Steve Pyzik, c; Clint Sammons, c; Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss.

End of Week 1 Spring Games MTM Update

2006-03-08T14:32:00.000-05:00

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

▼ Jose Ascanio, rhp / After getting shelled, his chances are pretty much nil. (Previously ▼)
▼ Brad Baker, rhp / Was compared to former Brave Greg McMichael. He’s got a great change-up. He looked good on Friday, worked his way out of a bases loaded jam, and with his minor league closing experience his chances to make the team in the bullpen were looking better until. . . he got shelled. (Previously –)
Blaine Boyer, rhp / (Previously –)
▲ Lance Cormier, rhp / Has another good outing. His stock is rising. (Previously –)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / A very strong outing Sunday, keeps him in the running for a rotation spot. His chances are increasing if rumors are true of a trade in the works with the Rangers that would send them Thompson. (Previously ▲)
▲ Joey Devine, rhp / Two strong innings continues to keep him at the top of the list for a bullpen spot. (Previously ▲)
▼ John Foster, lhp / A so-so outing, followed by a bad outing. I’m starting to wonder if the Braves really will carry two lefties in the pen. (Previously ▼)
– Chuck James, lhp / Shakey outing on Friday, he surrendered three walks which is very uncharacteristic of James. (Previously ▲)
▲ Anthony Lerew, rhp / You have to like a kid who is energetic about trying to be the best pitcher in the bullpen. He had a bit of a bump in the road, but it’s good to get that out during the spring. (Previously ▲)
▲ Macay McBride, lhp / Someone thinks he’s a lock for a spot in the pen. (Previously ▲)
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / He got some props from Schu, if he remains healthy he’ll make the team. (Previously ▲)
Brayan Pena, c / (Previously ▼)
▼ Martin Prado, 2b / Okay, so he’s not yet as versatile as Pete Orr, but I was on the right path. (Previously –)
– James Jurries, 1b / Looked good in the field on Friday. He was also very aggressive at the plate and on the base paths. He’s starting to rip the ball, but there are rumors of us in talks to possibly acquire 1b Phil Nevin from the Rangers. (Previously ▲)
Scott Thorman, 1b / (Previously ▼)
Matt Diaz, of / (Previously –)
Kelly Johnson, of / (Previously ▼)

Non-roster invitees

Kevin Barry, rhp / (Previously –)
▼ Wes Obermueller, rhp / Not a good outing on Friday. (Previously –)
Chad Paronto, rhp / (Previously ▲)
▼ Travis Smith, rhp / Not impressive. He’ll be in the rotation at Richmond. (Previously ▼)
▼ Mike Remlinger, lhp / Remlinger did not look sharp on Friday, and keep in mind that he’s not really a lefty specialist. When he was with the Braves, Cox used him as a full inning setup man. The Cubs tried to use him as a specialist and he wasn’t as effective. In Friday’s game he didn’t make it out of the 5th inning. He’s got some work to do to prove he still belongs. (Previously ▲)
Eddie Perez, c / (Previously ▼)
– Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c / Salty is a monster behind the plate. The kid is huge, built, strong. He’s probably bigger than Javy. For this reason, the organization will probably move him to first at some point this year. But barring an injury, he’ll start the season at AA. (Previously ▲)
▼ Jonathan Schuerholz, ss / Despite a home on Friday, he’ll be at AAA this year. (Previously ▼)
▲ Brian Jordan, of / Brian Jordan is just a great person who deserves and needs to be on the team this year. I hope he’s able to add value as a first baseman to help his chances in making the team. He can be what Julio Franco has been to the team the last few years; a veteran presence who can be the primary pinch hitter off the bench. (Previously ▲)
– Dave Kelton, of / As one of the many in the outfield mix, he has more first base experience than the others. He’s doing some hitting as well. (Previously ▼)
Michael Ryan, of / (Previously ▼)

Off the radar and bound for the minors: Sean White, rhp; Steve Pyzik, c; Clint Sammons, c; Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss.

Braves Tidbits from the WBC

2006-03-08T14:08:00.000-05:00

Holy Oscar Villarreal, Batman! Don’t tell me that Chipper’s home run wasn’t a gimme from his new teammate. None the less, it was a strong showing from the Chip-ster. This was a good exchange between Team USA manager Buck Martinez and Chipper: Martinez joked about Jones's contribution, saying, ''He's a good bench player." Jones came back with, ''I'm just trying to play my way into the lineup."

And as I predicted, there were a lot of groans in Boston as Team USA took the field with A-Rod, Jeter, and Damon in the lineup, and no Varitek. The team looks strong, though, especially the pitching.

I wouldn’t have thought Team Ozzy was that bad, but they got walloped and one-hit by the Italians. Former Brave farmhand Glenn Williams struck out twice for Australia.

Chris Reitsma got F’ed in the A by South Africa, and what many people thought would be the weakest team turned in a very strong showing and almost beat Canada. Pete Orr batted leadoff for the wacky Canadians, and managed to steal a base. But it was not a good showing by any means for Reits, who gave up two hits, a walk, and hit a batter while blowing the save. Keep in mind that it is still early in spring training, and he may not be ready yet. Let’s hope that’s the case.

Making-the-Team Meter (MTM) Update

2006-03-03T10:46:00.000-05:00

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–). No mark to the left indicates there was no change from the previous week.

Players on the 40-man roster

▼ Jose Ascanio, rhp / Surrendered 3 hits to college players, though he got out of trouble without surrendering a run. (Previously –)
Brad Baker, rhp / (Previously –)
Blaine Boyer, rhp / (Previously –)
– Lance Cormier, rhp / Impressive in his first outing. (Previously ▼)
▲ Kyle Davies, rhp / He could be slotted into Sosa’s spot in the rotation while Jorge is away at the WBC. This could be his chance to prove he belongs. (Previously –)
▲ Joey Devine, rhp / With the help of Roger McDowell, Joey has significantly improved his slider. Solid first outing, and Cox had some good words to say about him: "They all did. But Joey. . . Roger [McDowell] has been bearing down on him and it's helped. He's throwing the ball well." (Previously ▲)
John Foster, lhp / (Previously ▼)
Chuck James, lhp / (Previously ▲)
▲ Anthony Lerew, rhp / He continues to impress the coaching staff with his stuff, and if he can master his control he’ll be a lock for the roster. (Previously ▲)
▲ Macay McBride, lhp / Good first outing. (Previously ▲)
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / Solid first outing, with 4 Ks in 2 innings. He’s off to Team Mexico. (Previously ▲)
▼ Brayan Pena, c / If Salty keeps doing his thing, he’ll jump over Pena on the depth chart. (Previously ▼)
– Martin Prado, 2b / He could be this year’s Pete Orr. (Previously not listed)
▲ James Jurries, 1b / From Sporting News, If he proves himself defensively in camp, 1B James Jurries will platoon at first base with Adam LaRoche. The righthanded Jurries has produced impressive offensive numbers in the Minors and defensively he's just as strong as was Julio Franco. LaRoche is going to do all that he can to prove that he can hit lefties, but if Jurries impresses he will get a chance. He is also trying to get the monkey off his back. (Previously –)
▼ Scott Thorman, 1b / Jurries seems to be the favorite, and Thorman’s left-handed which hurts his platoon chances. He’s off to Team Canada. (Previously –)
– Matt Diaz, of / He’s out of options, but it seems that Langy has been given the left field job. (Previously ▲)
▼ Kelly Johnson, of / He has an option, and unless they carry 5 outfielders, he might be the odd man out. The fact that he and Langerhans are both left-handed means that they cannot be part of a lefty-righty platoon in left field. He could still play his way into a roster spot. (Previously ▼)

Non-roster invitees

– Kevin Barry, rhp / Pitched a scoreless inning, he’s getting himself in the bullpen mix. (Previously ▼)
Wes Obermueller, rhp / (Previously –)
Chad Paronto, rhp / (Previously ▲)
Travis Smith, rhp / (Previously ▼)
▼ Sean White, rhp / Good first outing, but he’s still such a long shot. (Previously ▼)
Mike Remlinger, lhp / (Previously ▲)
▼ Eddie Perez, c / All indications are he’s not going to be healthy enough to start the season. (Previously ▼)
Steve Pyzik, c / (Previously ▼)
▲ Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c / He is coming out of the gate hitting. (Previously ▲)
Clint Sammons, c / (Previously ▼)
▼ Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss / Went 0 for 2 and made an error, not impressive. (Previously ▼)
Jonathan Schuerholz, ss / (Previously ▼)
Brian Jordan, of / (Previously ▲)
▼ Dave Kelton, of / Going 0 for 3 against college pitchers won’t help his cause. (Previously –)
▼ Michael Ryan, of / Going 0 for 3 against major league pitchers won’t help his cause. (Previously –)

. . . Next MTM update early next week. . .

Another Take on the WBC

2006-03-02T10:29:00.000-05:00

If you didn’t like my World Baseball Classic predicting, or you simply want another opinion, then you should know that Fox Sports is doing some predicting of their own. They are also getting a bit more granular by predicting the score and outcome of each game. My predictions can be found here:
[AL: East / Central / West; NL: East / Central / West]

Meanwhile, players keep withdrawing from the Classic. The latest defections (no Cuba pun intended) have been from the US team in the form of Billy Wagner and C.C. Sabathia. They were replaced by Gary Majewski and (gulp) Al Leiter. If this continues, it may not turn out too good for the ‘home team.’

Time to Set the DVR Alert

2006-03-01T10:00:00.000-05:00

If you don’t have a DVR (or Tivo for you traditionalists), then it’s time to get one. With spring training games during the work day, one might have to actually skip work to watch a game! But with the new magic of DVR, the point is not to watch live TV, but to record it and play it back later while fast forwarding through all the commercials. So with this in mind, I lay out a few notable items worth recording through the end of the week.

Friday, March 3rd @ 2:00 am – WBC: Korea vs. Taiwan on ESPN2
Friday, March 3rd @ 4:30 am – WBC: Japan vs. China on ESPN2
Friday, March 3rd @ 1:00 pm – Dodgers vs. Braves on ESPN

That should take care of your weekend baseball fix. If you need more, there are some other Asian WBC games on during the weekend; you can check out the schedule here. Keep in mind, those Asian games are going to be fun for no other reason than to listen to the announcers try and pronounce some of the player’s names.

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In blogging news, one of the Baseball blogging patriarchs, David Pinto of Baseball Musings, is having a pledge drive. He is one of the lucky ones that gets to blog as a full time job, and a large part of his income is generated by the once a year pledge drive. Dave was one of the first to link to this site, and gave me a great write-up on his blog. I’ve taken the time to donate a ten-spot, and if you visit his blog on a regular basis, then help support the great job he does. If you don’t visit his blog then you’re missing out on one of the best sports bloggers in the business, so check him out.

MTM: Pre-Spring Games Buzz (Non-roster invitees)

2006-02-28T09:57:00.000-05:00

Making-the-Team Meter for Braves non-roster invitees

This is what everyone's saying (writers, players, coaches) about a non-roster player’s chances of making the squad prior to any spring games.

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–).

▼ Kevin Barry, rhp / At age 27, he’s a career minor leaguer who has actually put up some decent numbers in the minors the past two years.
– Wes Obermueller, rhp / He is the Dan Kolb consolation prize. He’s bounced between AAA and the majors the last four years, and he hasn’t been able to post a major league ERA under 5.00 yet. He’s impressed a bit at camp so far.
▲ Chad Paronto, rhp / He’s a 4-A pitcher who was last in the bigs in ’03. But for a non-roster guy, he’s raising some eyebrows and may become the new Kevin Gryboski.
▼ Travis Smith, rhp / Another 4-A pitcher, he made some spot starts for the Braves in ’04.
▼ Sean White, rhp / Minor league starter getting a look.
▲ Mike Remlinger, lhp / Does he have one more year in him? He’s got a lot to prove, and he’s added a pitch to try and help his chances.
▼ Eddie Perez, c / He’s hoping some team needs an aging backup catcher, but we have Pratt and apparently no room for Eddie.
▼ Steve Pyzik, c / The pitchers need someone to throw to in the spring.
▲ Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c / Our number one prospect, this year’s Francoeur. Already has impressed many people.
▼ Clint Sammons, c / Solid young catcher, but we have a lot of those in the system.
▼ Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss / 4-A speedster, he’ll be what Esix Snead was to Richmond last year.
▼ Jonathan Schuerholz, ss / He’s got a chance to show if he can play, but he doesn’t have a high ceiling.
▲ Brian Jordan, of / Can he make the team again? He’s trying to add value by also being a first baseman.
– Dave Kelton, of / Has shown good power in the minors, but has never gotten a chance in the bigs.
– Michael Ryan, of / Cups of coffee each of the last four years with the Twins, he hit 31 HR in ’02 at AAA.

. . . I will probably have another MTM update on Friday or Saturday after several spring games are in the books. . .

MTM: Pre-Spring Games Buzz (40-man)

2006-02-27T13:16:00.000-05:00

Making-the-Team Meter for Braves players on the 40-man roster

This is what everyone's saying (writers, players, coaches) about a player’s chances of making the squad prior to any spring games. Speaking of spring games, March 1st ushers in the first scrimmage game against the Dawgs. Also note that Friday’s home game against the Dodgers is going to be televised on ESPN. (Is it too early for me to be smelling a sick day?)

The marks to the left of the player's name indicates that their chances of making the team are moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–).

– Jose Ascanio, rhp / He had a major off year in ’05, but he’s opened some eyes early at camp.
– Brad Baker, rhp / Minor league closer in the Pads system, will have plenty of competition.
– Blaine Boyer, rhp / Needs to bounce back from late season arm trouble.
▼ Lance Cormier, rhp / Has not been very impressive in 1+ seasons with the D-Backs, but he’s showing signs that he may have some potential. Still has a lot to prove.
– Kyle Davies, rhp / Trying to make the team as the 5th starter; James is giving him a lot of early competition.
▲ Joey Devine, rhp / Potential closer candidate, needs to stay away from the gopher balls this spring. He’s been impressive early in camp.
▼ John Foster, lhp / Left handed journey man will try to stake a claim in the bullpen. With McBride and Remlinger, it will be an uphill battle.
▲ Chuck James, lhp / Lefty starter might surprise many like Horacio Ramirez did when he made the team out of spring training in ’03. He’s already raised some eyebrows.
▲ Anthony Lerew, rhp / Power arm will compete for the closer’s job.
▲ Macay McBride, lhp / Power lefty could become a bullpen mainstay.
▲ Oscar Villarreal, rhp / The principal arm in the Estrada trade, should make the pen, but must prove that arm troubles are behind him. He’s already showing he’s a solid clubhouse guy, and he’s impressed several teammates with his stuff on the mound.
▼ Brayan Pena, c / If an injury to McCann or Pratt occurs, Pena is ready to step in, but with Salty on his heels he still must impress this spring.
– James Jurries, 1b / He’s had enough of AAA, but he must impress to earn a spot.
– Scott Thorman, 3b-1b / Because he’s a lefty, he might not get a look as a potential 1b platoon player. But he may have an extra chance to shine in the WBC.
▲ Matt Diaz, of / Hard-nosed outfielder who is one of the favorites for the left-field job. Also adds some value as an emergency catcher.
▼ Kelly Johnson, of / He will have to prove that he can overcome his late season struggles and not be a streaky as he was last year. He hopes the off-season surgery he had will help his chances.

. . . Tomorrow I’ll have the pre-spring games buzz for the non-roster invitees. . .

Making-the-Team Meter

2006-02-27T13:00:00.000-05:00

With so many players, especially relief pitchers, trying to make the Braves squad this spring, I thought it would be handy to keep a hot/cold chart of what each player’s chances are. I’ll update the chart throughout the spring and try to reference why they’re moving up (▲), moving down (▼), or staying even (–) in their chances to make the team.

Here are the candidates:

Players on the 40-man roster:
Jose Ascanio, rhp
Brad Baker, rhp
Blaine Boyer, rhp
Lance Cormier, rhp
Kyle Davies, rhp
Joey Devine, rhp
John Foster, lhp
Chuck James, lhp
Anthony Lerew, rhp
Macay McBride, lhp
Oscar Villarreal, rhp
Brayan Pena, c
James Jurries, 1b
Scott Thorman, 1b
Matt Diaz, of
Kelly Johnson, of

Non-roster invitees:
Kevin Barry, rhp
Wes Obermueller, rhp
Chad Paronto, rhp
Travis Smith, rhp
Sean White, rhp
Mike Remlinger, lhp
Eddie Perez, c
Steve Pyzik, c
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c
Clint Sammons, c
Cesar Crespo, 2b-ss
Jonathan Schuerholz, ss
Brian Jordan, of
Dave Kelton, of
Michael Ryan, of

Around the Horn in the NL East

2006-02-22T11:00:00.000-05:00

“Spring is in the air!”

Let me be the ninety billionth blogger to say that spring training has officially arrived.

Former Braves shortstop, Rafael Furcal, says his decision to leave the team was purely business. He also thinks that Marcus Giles will not like batting lead-off. I for one, have to agree with him. As I’ve said before, Giles slots better as a number 2 hitter and Renteria fits better as a number 7 hitter. The whole lineup works better when they hit in that order, and I have confidence that our left field platoon can become strong on-base guys.

Bobby Cox admits that he has overused Chris Reitsma in the past:

"He's had some success out there, and I think if we used him just right, he'd have a lot of success. I have a tendency to overuse him," manager Bobby Cox says. "He's got three outstanding pitches. But there's other guys out there, too."

Reistma, for his part, is approaching this opportunity as if it is wide open:

"I'd like to have the job, but I'm not looking at it like it's mine to lose," Reitsma says, adding he feels he can repeat his July performance. "I feel strong, healthy."

The Phillies new closer, Tom Gordon, is not at all sad about leaving New York and it’s media behind. His quest to prove people wrong that he is not washed up and can close again may strengthen his resolve to have a good year. He will have to live up to comparisons to Billy Wagner, which may be hard to do.

Phills’ third baseman David Bell might have some competition this spring.

Former Brave Bret Boone will either win a job with the Mets or hang up his spikes this spring. He’s pulling out all the stops, including dying his hair bleached-blond, but he will face a bunch of competition for the Mets’ few bench spots, one of them is Julio Franco.

The Marlins’ new manager, Joe Girardi, seems to be fitting in well with his new team. A scary thought on a team this young is that he might be in better shape than some of his players:

In the clubhouse a few minutes later, Olsen wrapped a cold towel around his head and marveled at how Girardi, 41, outpaced many players.

"He ran, like, 12 poles and he wasn't even fazed," Olsen, 22, said. "He might have run more than 14. I ran my 14 and got out."

The Nationals still don’t have an owner, but soon they may not have a name. Could MLB fall on their face any more when it comes to this team?

Predicting the World Baseball Classic: Finals

2006-02-17T16:35:00.000-05:00

It’s Rocket time! And this is the type of game that Roger Clemens was made to pitch. He’s held Pujols to only one RBI in 21 career ABs, Miguel Tejada to only one RBI in 26 career ABs, Big Papi to a .211 BA, Vlad to a .188 BA, Manny a .180 BA. The Rocket may be the only man who is not afraid to face the Dominican lineup, because he knows he can neutralize it. Back up what ever he can do, for the 95 pitches he is allowed to throw, with a phalanx of relievers the likes of Brad Lidge, Chad Cordero, Joe Nathan, Huston Street, and Billy Wagner. Let’s just hope Buck Martinez can hold off using Clemens in the Semis and save him for the Finals. This game may still be very close one, though. Standing opposite Clemens on the mound could be Pedro Martinez, who is equally capable of shutting down an opponent’s offense. This game may turn out to be an All-Star game that means something (oh, wait). Still, I’m going to go with the team that can bring in multiple relievers capable of throwing 100+ mph, Team United States. Really, I’m not just picking them because I’m from the same country, I just think that a 100 mph fastball at this point in the spring is not something many batters, even the Dominican murderer’s row, can catch up with. Pitching, this kind of pitching, wins the ‘Championship Trophy’ of the first World Baseball Classic.

Some Big Names Begin Blogging

2006-02-17T10:53:00.000-05:00

Two of the top Baseball writers at ESPN have begun daily weblogs. Jayson Stark and Peter Gammons are now bridging the gap between MSM and bloggers. The only downfall for most people is that these blogs, like Buster Olney’s, is behind the paid subscription required ESPN Insider wall. I have an account that I’ve had for a little over a year now. I think I got it mainly so that I could see all the rumors on Rumor Central, but I like the access it gives me to the exclusive ESPN Insider writers (and now bloggers). With it I also receive the oversized ESPN The Magazine (which is like a regular magazine on steroids. . . huh). At any rate, this is not an ad for ESPN, I just thought I’d mention it. I’ve also added their links to the column on the right.

Predicting the World Baseball Classic: Semi-Finals

2006-02-17T09:05:00.000-05:00

The top two teams from each of Round 2’s Pool 1 and Pool 2 play one game to determine who will go to the Finals. With single elimination, this round will be a nail-biter.

Pool 1: Japan vs. United States
The only advantage that Japan might have is that many of their pitchers have weird motions, and the US could stumble upon someone who dominates them on the mound. Many of the US players, including Derek Lee and Vernon Wells, have been to Japan in the quasi-annual MLB Japan All-Star Series. There will be some familiarity with some of their players. One of the added bonuses of the recent players like Ichiro and Matsui coming over from Japan, is that there are plenty of scouting reports floating around on the top Japanese players, many of whom should be participating in the WBC. The US pulls out a victory with a late inning rally.

Pool 2: Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic
This rematch will have been brewing for weeks, ever since the end of the Caribbean Series, a series that saw Venezuela rally in the ninth inning for a miraculous comeback against the Dominicans. But that Dominican team did not have the powerful punch that it is now carrying into the WBC. And while Venezuela will put up a good fight, it will not be enough to break the backs of the Dominican sluggers. The DR gets out to an early lead and holds off a late rally by Venezuela to win.

. . . Tomorrow, which team will I predict to take home the. . . cup? (what is the trophy called). . .

Predicting the World Baseball Classic: Round 2

2006-02-16T10:12:00.000-05:00

In Round 2 within each newly created pool, each team plays every other team in the pool once. The teams with the top two records from each pool advance to the Semi-Finals. My predictions from Round 1 result in the following teams making each of the pools below.

Pool 1: Japan / Korea / Mexico / United States
It is pretty easy to predict the teams that will advance from this second round pool. The US and Japan will be very strong in all aspects of the game. Korea and Mexico just don’t have enough to keep with the two most prolific baseball countries.

Pool 2: Netherlands / Puerto Rico / Dominican Republic / Venezuela
Team Puerto Rico will put up a fight, and Mulder and Haren of Team Netherlands may make some games close, but they will wither under the onslaught of batting that will be Team DR and Team Venezuela. Let me just take a moment to expand on how loaded the Dominican team is. This lineup should include Willy Taveras, Manny Ramirez, and Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield; Adrian Beltre, Miguel Tejada, Alfonso Soriano, and Albert Pujols around the infield; and to top it off, Big Papi in the DH spot. Not to mention Cy Young award winners Pedro Martinez and Bartolo Colon leading a pitching staff that consists of starters like Odalis Perez and Jorge Sosa, and a relief corps that includes Jose Mesa, Miguel Batista, and Armando Benitez. Absolutely stacked!

. . . Tomorrow, the Simi-Finals’ predictions. . .

Predicting the World Baseball Classic: Round 1

2006-02-15T16:44:00.000-05:00

Not all the rosters are set, but we can pretty much tell which teams will be contenders and which teams will not. In Round 1 within each pool, each team plays every other team in the pool once. The teams with the top two records from each pool advance to Round 2.

Pool A: China / Chinese Taipei / Japan / Korea
First of all, this will be the most fun bracket to watch simply to listen to the announcers try and pronounce these players’ names. The Korean team could conceivably have a lineup where every player had the last name of Kim, and the Taiwanese could field a team comprised completely of Chen’s. The picks to advance from this bracket are pretty obvious, with Japan grabbing the one seed and Korea taking the two seed.

Pool B: Canada / Mexico / South Africa / United States
This is arguably the toughest pool, with three contenders and the also-ran South Africans. The US will definitely advance as the one seed (at least they better, this is their tournament), but the second seed is a close one between the bookend countries of the US, Canada and Mexico. Canada can put together a respectable lineup that includes Jason Bay, Justin Morneau, Matt Stairs, and Corey Koskie. The Rockies youngster Jeff Francis anchors Team Canada’s staff with Erik Bedard as the only other decent-ish starter. Their relief corps should be strong with Reitsma, Cormier, Quantrill, and Crain. But Team Mexico looks to be a bit stronger with Dessens, Loaiza, Mitre, Oliver Perez, and Oscar Villareal anchoring their staff, and Vinny Castilla, Durazo, and a host of other moderately good hitters on the field. Their experience in a tournament like this (the Caribbean Series) will give them an edge. So the US and Mexico advance from Pool B.

Pool C: Cuba / Netherlands / Panama / Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico will easily take the top seed here, but the rest of the field should make it an exciting battle for the second seed. No one really knows what to expect from Cuba, but they could be very good if Castro lets the right team show up. Panama has a host of fringe major leaguers to support Carlos Lee, but it will not be enough to over take Team Netherlands. As I’ve written before, this rag-tag group of islanders led by Andruw Jones and Mark Mulder are going to be a fun bunch to watch. The Dutch grab the two seed behind Puerto Rico.

Pool D: Australia / Dominican Republic / Italy / Venezuela
There are two power house teams in this pool, the DR and Venezuela. The Dominicans should easily win the top seed here, with the Venezuelans on their heels in the two seed. The games between these two teams may constitute the most exciting rivalry of the tournament. Venezuela is coming off of a surprising upset of the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Series. Of course, the monster hitters that should be on Team DR in the WBC were not on the CS team. Australia and/or Italy in any other division might have had a chance to make it out of the first round.

. . . Coming up tomorrow, Round 2 predictions. . .

Around the Horn in the NL East

2006-02-14T08:55:00.000-05:00

The AJC has a great story about the new Braves’ starting catcher, Brian McCann. Eventually, the blogosphere is going to have to come up with a good name for the Sophomore Braves. They are no longer the rookies they were last year when they were dubbed the Baby Braves. Hopefully they can be the Terrific Two’s and not the Terrible Two’s. If you have any suggestions, send them my way.

Peter Gammons lists some top young players who will be difference makers next season, as selected by a poll of 50 executives, scouts, managers, and coaches. McCann made the list at number 7:

7. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: When All-Star Johnny Estrada got run over by Darin Erstad, McCann rushed in and helped the Braves finish first for the 14th consecutive full season. He had an impressive .748 OPS, handled pitchers masterfully and allowed the Braves to trade Estrada for bullpen help. Oh yes. Right behind McCann is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, rated by many as the best catching prospect in the minor leagues.

No Francoeur on the list. Don’t know if he’s too ‘experienced’ or what. Marte showed up around 22.

Macay McBride got a mention among the who do you believe will have a breakout season candidates. And Renteria got listed in 10th under the who do you believe will have the biggest comebacks question.

Even a team like the Mets still has plenty of questions entering the season. One of the big ones is Senior Pedro and his wittle huwt foowt. Minaya seems to be clipping coupons for any other pieces he can pick up before the season.

Shame, shame on MLB for not settling the Nationals ownership issue before the season starts. Their GM Jim Bowden put it best by saying unfortunately, it’s interim housing for a bunch of people with interim positions. Would they stop beating around the bush and sell the bloody team already.

It’s looking more and more like Slammin’ Steroid Sammy will not be with the Nats this year. Like his oversized head, his ego is too big for anything but a guaranteed starting role.

In other stadium news, the Marlins continue their quest to get someone to build them a stadium. This time they’re asking a local college to help foot the bill. That same story talks about the (unsurprising) drop-off in Marlins’ ticket sales. Even their new manager is having a tough time penciling in the starting lineup and starting rotation. It will be a big test for a rookie manager to not over use his young pitching arms.

It’s a bit much for the Marlins to try and hold south Florida ransom until someone down there builds them a ballpark. After the many hurricanes they have been through the last two years, and all the damage to the local economy, the Marlins shouldn’t be asking for public funds to build a ballpark. After the great success of San Fran’s privately financed park, why would any city with the financial hardships of Miami be willing to pay for a major league stadium.

By the way, I just stumbled across a great site about ballparks.

McDowell Exposed

2006-02-13T11:58:00.000-05:00

When I heard Roger McDowell was going to be the pitching coach, I remembered a picture that had stuck in my head from my old baseball card collecting days. So I went over to my archives (my parents’ house) and dug through my old Becketts. It didn’t take too long to find it, the April ’92 edition with the Big Hurt on the front and good ‘ol Ron Gant on the back. Those were the days when a ’91 Upper Deck Todd Van Poppel rookie was a robust $2.75, with an emphasis on the ‘bust.’ Anyway, this is a great picture of McDowell as a player. He was known as quite the jokester, and this photo was taken during the spring of that year. By the way, flipping through an old Beckett is a nice trip down nostalgia lane. Click on the picture for a larger view.

World Baseball Classic Update

2006-02-09T11:24:00.000-05:00

While I have proposed that the Braves use a bullpen by committee over at Talking Chop, I still feel that Chris Reitsma is our strongest and most reliable reliever (when healthy), and the best option if we choose one closer. It seems almost certain, now that Gagne has dropped out of the WBC, that Reits will be the closer for team Canada. This will be a better audition than closing out games in spring training.

For all of the flack that the WBC is taking, it may give certain players a chance to shine on a major stage with better competition than they would face in spring training. Spring games are exhibitions after all, while WBC games are supposed to mean something (I believe its nationalistic pride, but I’m not quite sure yet).

I wonder how worn out people will be after watching the Winter Olympics and rooting for their ‘country.’ Will they have any more of that ‘nationalistic pride’ left? And will it be an odd thing when they boo team USA in a bar in Boston as the lineup is read that includes Jeter, A-Rod, and Damon, and cheer for a Dominican Republic team that features Ortiz and Manny.

Book Excerpt

2006-02-08T10:54:00.000-05:00

Via Baseball Musings, an excerpt from Dayn Perry’s new book is online at Fox Sports. This chapter deals with the rise of Ted Turner and how his other business dealings lent themselves towards purchasing the Braves. It’s a nice trip down memory lane. As for the book, the excerpt was mainly historical with only one paragraph of slight analysis. That’s not enough to judge the book as good or bad on the analytical side.

A New Gig

2006-02-06T11:30:00.000-05:00

So apparently (1) people are reading this blather I spew on a regular basis, and (2) some people actually like it. I’ve been asked and have accepted a gig blogging for Talking Chop, another daily Braves blog. And not for nothing, that is and has been the first link posted on the right hand column of my blog.

I will continue to update this blog as well, as I think chronicling my season ticket misadventures is a worthy one. But I will be posting quite a bit of stuff over at Talking Chop as well. My first post is already online.

Free Music, WooHoo!

2006-02-05T19:23:00.000-05:00

So I got my latest issue of Paste magazine, and along with the free music sampler that is usually included, was a little card that offered 50 free songs form eMusic. I went ahead and signed up, gave them a credit card, downloaded my 50 free songs, and canceled my account before the 14-day free trial was up (critical), and didn’t get charged a cent. Go to www.emusic.com/paste to sign up. I’m not getting any kickbacks from this, I just thought I would pass along the love.

FanFest Comes and Goes

2006-02-04T18:54:00.000-05:00

I stopped by the Braves Winter FanFest for a couple hours today. It was a decent day, kinda cold and windy, but not too bad. I stopped by the ‘Fest mainly for a clubhouse tour, and a stroll on the field, but I only got one out of two. They were apparently not set up for the clubhouse tours, which was a bit disappointing.

I’m not a big autograph hound so I wasn’t really going to get any signatures, and good thing because the lines were monstrous. The line to get Smoltz’ signature wound about a third of the way around the back of the stadium, at least three hundred yards or so.

The picture below was the line to get Renteria’s autograph. Not a bad sign for the new Brave.

One of the best events were the Q&A’s with Braves players and coaches. I saw John Thompson and Joey Devine answering questions as I walked in. Later on John Smoltz and Roger McDowell took to the stage to answer questions. I realized as I was standing there that I should have brought a pen and some paper so that I could write down some of the more interesting things they were saying and relay them to you here, but I forgot, damn. I’m sure the AJC will do a good job of relaying the important quotes. The fans were asking a bunch of questions about how hard the players thought it would be to keep up with the Mets after all of their off-season acquisitions. I also recall that one of the last questions Smoltz answered during his Q&A session received the most applause. He was answering a question about when he first got serious about baseball as a kid. He ended it by saying that ‘[parents these days push their kids too hard in little leagues, and that they should just let them have fun and be kids. High school is the time to get serious about sports.]’

Camp Roger

2006-02-02T10:53:00.000-05:00

Everyone seems to be responding well to the Braves new pitching coach, Roger McDowell. There is also the scent of anti-Leo sentiment in the air. Tim Hudson doesn’t seem to have lost any sleep over Leo leaving, as he has implied several times. The big differences between McDowell and Mazzone seems to be that Leo was an ‘old school’ kind of coach, who may have been looked down upon sometimes because he never pitched in the big leagues. Whereas McDowell is one of the new breed of pitching coaches who worries just as much about the pitchers’ mental ability to throw as his physical delivery of pitches. He also seems to be getting more instant credit for having been a former Major League pitcher.

Winter Leagues Playoff Stats

2006-01-31T11:49:00.000-05:00

As I did with the final regular season stats for the winter leagues, I have collected the final stats for the playoffs from each country. If any Braves participate in the Caribbean Series, I’ll try and keep you updated as to those stats as well.

Of particular note, is the play of Bryan Pena, who finished the regular winter season with a .326 BA, and followed that up with a winter playoff average of .347. Especially impressive were his three triples – not too bad for a catcher. As I’ve said before, I thought that Pena’s play this winter, which was similar to his play at AAA last year, was enough to get him at least the backup catcher job with the Braves in '06. Not that I don’t think Todd Pratt is going to be a decent backup catcher, but if you want McCann to have a mentor, then hire Eddie Perez on as a coach or bullpen catcher. Use that roster spot for Pena to develop (and be mentored as well) so that you can have two young above average catchers in the majors. Pena’s time to make the club may be very short lived with Salty knocking on the door.

For better viewing and larger more readable fonts, click on the picture below to enlarge it.

Politics and Fundamentalism

2006-01-30T16:37:00.000-05:00

I started this blog thinking I’d weave in politics with baseball in a similar but lesser fashion to how the Baseball Crank does. Though I tend to fall just on the other side of center from where he is. But I changed that approach to just focus on baseball, and the Braves in particular. Much of that change was due to my opinions and ideas about politics being just too damn complex to be blogged about along side baseball. Also, I thought there were plenty of bloggers out there who were talking about politics that did a ‘heckuva job’ as it was (some of them are linked on the column to the right).

But I came across a story that sums up many of my fears about where the politics of this country seem headed. This Rolling Stone article (quite long, but worth the read) details an example of what I have thought for some time is the systematic unraveling of the barrier that protects the state from the church and the church from the state. That wall is in place to protect each one of those institutions from the other, and there are many out there that wish to tear it down.

I also came across a great quote by Andrew Sullivan that sums up how I view all this in a nutshell: “We once allowed for strong religious faith but also for a neutral but respectful public square. What fundamentalism does is demand the complete submission of all parts of life - professional, civic, political - to the demands of dogma.”

Scary business, at least to me. That’ll be enough politics for now, I’ll get back to baseball tomorrow.

Fan Fests Update

2006-01-26T12:24:00.000-05:00

It looks like Francoeur and McCann will be attending the Braves FanFest in Atlanta on February 4th at The Ted. I had reported earlier that those two are also scheduled to take place in the Mississippi Braves’ Fan-Fest later that same day, and all indications now point to them attending both of those events. My thoughts are that they will be in Atlanta in the morning, probably leaving by 1pm to catch a charter flight to Pearl. So if you want either of their autographs, get there early.

Here is the list of Braves scheduled to appear:

Chipper Jones
Tim Hudson
Andruw Jones
Jeff Francoeur
Brian McCann
Marcus Giles
Horacio Ramirez
John Thomson
Kyle Davies
Pete Orr
Blaine Boyer
Edgar Renteria
Roger McDowell
Todd Pratt

Winter Leagues Update

2006-01-26T08:49:00.000-05:00

For all those who are interested, I have collected the stats of Braves players and farmhands from the final regular season standings of the various winter leagues around the Caribbean. The best way I’ve found to display them is as a picture. For better viewing and larger more readable fonts, click on the picture below to enlarge it. Once the playoffs end for each country, I will collect those stats here in a similar manner.

Around the Horn and Back to Leo

2006-01-25T10:13:00.000-05:00

Here is a smattering of news this week from around the NL East.

The Braves brought back a grey-haired reliever. Remlinger might find success as a situational lefty ala Jeff Fassero, who just keeps hanging around the big leagues year after year even at 43 years old. And don’t even try to keep track of the two dozen or so pitchers who will be auditioning for bullpen spots with the Braves this year.

Some in Philly have very high expectations for Flash Gordon. Meanwhile, the Phillies are trying to plug a big hole in the bullpen in front of Gordo, but their latest attempt has hit a snag.

The Mets’ quest to build a stronger bullpen might be a big off-season gamble. The NY Daily News only gives the bullpen moves a ‘maybe’ towards helping ‘to finally end the Braves’ stranglehold on the NL East.’ I wonder if these trades will be remembered along side the trades the Mariners made for relievers in ’97 when they dealt away young players like Varitek, Lowe, and Cruz Jr. for rent-a-relief pitchers Heathcliff Slocumb, Paul Spoljaric, and Mike Timlin. The Mets’ trades have also left the starting rotation without any depth and with unproven competition for the fifth spot.

The DC stadium saga continues.

Former Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone was interviewed by Tim Kurkjian at ESPN about his past with Atlanta and his future in Baltimore. A Braves reliever from last year was told by Leo that they had some ‘unfinished business,’ and so he signed with the O's. Mazzone is already very popular with the fans in Baltimore.

Sosa as Closer

2006-01-24T13:51:00.000-05:00

Some people have suggested that Jorge Sosa may wind up as the Braves closer this year. Unfortunately, these same people also think that an inverse progression in blackjack is a good idea. I offer up some numbers to try and dissuade some people from thinking that Sosa would be a good closer.

Sosa’s season last year can best be described as abnormally lucky. Perhaps that’s why he was nicknamed Jorge Houdini by Braves’ TV and radio announcers. So what constitutes his luck? After all in 24 games as a reliever in 2005, Sosa posted a 2.31 ERA. But in those 24 games (27.1 innings) as a reliever he gave up 24 hits and issued 19 walks, while only striking out 17. That’s an alarming number of base runners for a reliever.

Let’s take what I consider an important indicator for relievers, and closers in particular; the first 15 pitches they throw in a ballgame and the batters’ results from those pitches. The first 15 pitches set the tone for any reliever’s outing. I’ve compared three other Braves from last year. Of course some of Sosa’s stats are going to be as a starter, but they are still indicative of what happens when he enters a game.

Pitches 1-15 Results (Hits + Walks / Plate Appearances = % of runners reached base):
Sosa – 32 H + 20 BB / 134 PA = 39%
Kolb – 54 H + 20 BB / 197 PA, = 38%
Reitsma – 64 H + 12 BB / 251 PA = 30%
Farnsworth – 31 H + 19 BB / 200 PA = 25%

Let’s just look at walks as an indicator of control over the first 15 pitches:
Sosa – 20 BB / 134 PA = 15%
Kolb – 20 BB / 197 PA = 10%
Reitsma – 12 BB / 251 PA = 5%
Farnsworth – 19 BB / 200 = 9.5%

From the first set of numbers (which is essentially on-base percentage), we can see that Sosa was not even as good as Dan Kolb when he first enters a game, allowing almost 40 percent of the hitters he faced to reach base, and walking every seventh batter. As we learned last year, this is not the kind of closer we want. From these numbers we can also infer that as lucky as Sosa was, Kolb was just as unlucky.

Sosa translates better as a starter because as the game moves on he settles down and issues fewer walks and gets more batters out. A starter is better equipped to deal with control problems early in the game. Even if he gives up a run or two early he has the ability to settle into a rhythm and pitch well for several more innings. Here are his pitches to % of runners reached base for the next 75 pitches:

Pitches 16 – 30: 18 H + 12 BB / 116 PA = 26%
Pitches 31 – 45: 12 H + 5 BB / 82 PA = 21%
Pitches 46 – 60: 19 H + 13 BB / 74 PA = 43%
Pitches 61 – 75: 21 H + 6 BB / 77 PA = 35%
Pitches 76 – 90: 17 H + 6 BB / 56 PA = 41%

He settles down dramatically from 16 to 45 pitches, but then he becomes a bit more hittable. I would imagine this is because he was only used sparingly as a starter the previous three years with Tampa Bay. After starting more games in one year than he has in any single year before in the Major Leagues in 2005, his arm strength should begin to rebound and we will hopefully see him able to go deeper into ballgames with better results in 2006. So Sosa’s value is as a starter and not a closer or reliever. That wildness and lack of control just after he enters a ball game will catch up with him as a reliever, but can be overcome as a starter.

A Fan Fests Conflict

2006-01-23T11:09:00.000-05:00

Hey fans! Want to see your favorite new Braves, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, and Blaine Boyer at this year’s Braves Winter FanFest on February 4th from 10am to 5pm. After all, they are the young stars that helped Atlanta recapture that baseball spirit. Well, odds are you won’t see them. They will be at Fan-Fest, but not at FanFest. This particular ‘Fest they will be attending is for the Mississippi Braves at Trustman Park in, you guessed it, Mississippi from 4pm to 8pm. I guess they could try to attend both if they had access to a plane to whisk them from Atlanta in the early afternoon to Mississippi at night. But my guess is that barring Deion Sanders showing up with a helicopter, the Major League club’s first event of 2006 will be without some of its most popular young talent. I wonder how the big club could let a scheduling conflict like this occur.

The Rome Braves hold their ‘Fest on Monday the 6th of February, with Giles and Salty headlining.

No Closer Than Yesterday

2006-01-20T20:13:00.000-05:00

There are several good reads that went up the last few days regarding the Braves closer situation. Jeff Schultz at the ‘Atlanta Urinal and Constipation’ thinks the situation is bad enough that fans should “bring a glove” to next month’s FanFest and audition for the job. Jason Stark at ESPN considers several candidates for the job, as does Mark Bowman at MLB.com.

So after all that writing by the experts, the bottom line is that no one knows who the Braves closer will be. Even Schu says that “we don’t have an [answer] … at the moment.” Pretty much we are not going to have any resolution to this until spring training.

A situation to keep an eye on will be Chris Reitsma on Canada’s roster for the World Baseball Classic. If Eric Gagne is unable to return in time from the elbow surgery he had last June, then Reits would be the next logical choice for their closer. That could be a great early spring test and audition for him in that role.

The other side of that coin is that while Reitsma is away at WBC games, someone else may have a chance to step in and impress Braves coaches while closing games.

Of course the other other side of this wicked three dimensional coin is that the batters any potential closer candidate would face in spring training games in the ninth inning would probably not be of the same caliber that a closer would see in the ninth inning of WBC games. The last few innings of spring games are usually populated by minor leaguers. Whereas, one would think the final innings of a WBC game would see a bevy of very good All-Star pinch hitters.

I’ve gone ahead and put down the odds for the front runners:

Chris Reitsma: 2-1 he gets the job
Joey Devine: 6-1 he gets the job, 2-1 he gives up a grand slam in each his first two games of the year
Oscar Villarreal: 14-1 he gets the job, 3-2 Skip Carey can’t pronounce his name for the first three months of the season
Brad Baker: 40-1 he gets the job, 3-1 he makes the team
Trade: 8-1 some trade falls in Schu’s lap and he takes it, 10-1 he seeks out a trade

Around the Horn in the NL East

2006-01-19T10:13:00.000-05:00

There is quite a bit of little stuff going on around the NL East the last few days.

First off, the Braves signed all of their arbitration eligible players except for Jorge Sosa. Marcus Giles almost doubled his salary from a year ago to $3.85 mil, but still some people think he is underpaid. I have to wonder if Giles settling for less money than he may have gotten through arbitration is perhaps a symptom of the Chipper Jones contract restructuring. Long time Braves may now be afraid to take the team to the cleaners when it comes contract time.

Meanwhile, Jeff Francoeur was added to the World Baseball Classic roster.

The Nationals locked up their catcher, Brian Schneider, with a four-year contract. But it looks like Alfonso Soriano is going to try and take the Nats to the cleaners in arbitration, as he continues to be a thorn in their side while he resists any positional switch. And there’s still an impasse in the DC stadium talks.

The Mets continue to collect players as they sign a Japanese swing-man. Everyone must now learn to pronounce Yusaku Iriki.

In a tough love statement you don’t usually see made by management, the Phillies’ GM Pat Gillick has conceded that they will not win the NL East: “Are we going to win the division? No. We have to improve.” I wonder if he used that line a couple months ago when he was interviewing for the GM job. At least the Philly press is trying to turn his honesty into a good thing. But Gillick may be pissing off his best player as he tries to trade him away.

Fan Clubs I’m Considering

2006-01-17T13:42:00.000-05:00

With the glowing success of Francoeur’s Franks or Franc’s Franks, which was on the heels of the Sheff’s Chefs success, I’m tossing about a few ideas for Atlanta Braves player’s fan clubs that I could start. Being that my seats are on the front row of section 131 in the upper deck, that’s prime real estate for player-name-themed fan clubs. Here are the ones I’m considering:

LaRoche's Roaches: They're survivors. I think the costume would be a bit ungamely, and it would probably scare the hell out of kids. . . which could be a bonus.

Pete Orr’s Pirates: Orr, Arrr, Orr, Arrr, Orr, YeArr. Everybody loves pirates! This might not be a real good one for grabbing TV time, as Pete doesn’t come up to bat very often. But when he did, you better believe they’d show his pirates. Problem here is that there is already a baseball team with a pirate for a mascot, and therefore this might get a bit confusing. Maybe they can be Canadian pirates since he is from Canada. YeArr. . A.

Horacio's Whores: We could dress up like slutty Latino women. . . really ugly sluttly Latino women (unless that’s redundant). Problem here is in the late innings of the game when drunk denizens of the upper deck start hitting on us.

McCann's Cans of Whoop-Ass: Whether he’s hitting 3-run postseason home runs off of future hall of famers, or catching another future hall of famer, McCann needs a fan club that rivals the success of his buddy Francoeur’s. This may violate the stadium code of conduct, but I can bet you Skip Carey wouldn’t stop talking about it. We could be ‘McCann’s Cans of Whoop’ for short. It wouldn’t be hard for people to fill in the blank.

NL Award Winners

2006-01-13T10:30:00.000-05:00

MVP: One of the most under appreciated nicknames for Albert Pujols is ‘The Machine.’ It so aptly describes what he is; a complete hitter who is at the same time feared and respected by pitchers. How he was beat out for second place by (choke) Adrian Beltre in ’04 will never cease to amaze me. If it weren’t for Barry Bonds, Pujols may have already accumulated four MVP awards in just five major league seasons. There is just no stopping him. Apologies to Carlos Lee and Chipper Jones.

Cy Young: In 2005 Andy Pettitte had what I call a stealth year. He was arguably just as good as the Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, but somehow managed to get only one third place vote for the award. He had a lower ERA than Carpenter, just as many quality starts to lead the league as Carpenter, he gave up fewer walks and hits per 9 innings than Carpenter did, and had virtually the same K/BB ratio. So why then did he get only one third place vote? Perhaps it was because he was overshadowed by his own teammates, Clemens and Oswalt. Perhaps it was because his run support was a whole run less than Carpenter’s, and he therefore came up short in that all important wins category. Look for him to continue the dominance he displayed in the second half of last year and pick up the Cy Young which has long eluded him. Apologies to Pedro Martinez and Ben Sheets.

Rookie of the Year: It may take Prince Fielder a month or two to adjust the big leagues, but the Brewers, by trading Lyle Overbay, have given the first base job to him outright. Look out for the big kid in the second half of the season as he mashes he way to the ROY with the help of the friendly hitting confines of Miller Park.
Apologies to Jeremy Hermida and Ryan Zimmerman

Comeback Player of the Year Award presented by Viagra: He’ll come back and he’ll be Barry. He’ll complain and tell the media to stay out of his business in that disconcertingly effeminate voice. But there is no doubt that Barry Bonds will, at some point next year, make us all remember what baseball armor on an elbow, cocked and hung out over the plate can do. Apologies to Ben Sheets and Nomar Garciaparra

Manager of the Year: I can’t pick a team like the Brewers to win the Wild Card and not give the craftiest skipper award to their manager Ned Yost. Cut from the Bobby Cox ilk, Yost’s patience and persistence in support of his players will finally be recognized and rewarded. Apologies to Bobby Cox and Grady Little

NL West

2006-01-12T09:02:00.000-05:00

Dodgers (91 – 71): Is there really any difference between Grady Little and Terry Francona? Little managed himself out of Boston with one decision while Francona sat back and watched the Boston miracle of 2004 transpire. Little will have a lot to work with in ’06 with the new acquisitions of Furcal, Mueller, Garciaparra, and Lofton, and the departure of trouble child Milton Bradley. This club will only get better as the recently signed free agents are joined by the deluge of young talent from the best farm system in baseball. That depth will allow the Dodgers to make up for any injury bumps throughout the season much like the Braves did in ’05. They may be ready to make another Rookie of the Year run much like they did from ’92 to ’96 when they developed Karros, Piazza, Mondesi, Nomo, and Hollandsworth. The new crop of Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman, and Jonathan Broxton could be household names for years to come. The free agents they signed also gives these young guys the time they need to develop. DIVISION WINNER

Giants (86 – 76): Old and getting older. By trading away Edgardo Alfonso for Steve Finley they get even older. Finley will be 41 by opening day and age may finally be catching up with him as his OPS suggests from ’02 to ’05: .869, .863, .823, .645. He joins the other geriatric All-Stars of Omar Vizquel (38), Jose Vizcaino (38), Moises Alou (39), Tim Worrell (38), and the loveable and immortal Barry Bonds (41). Don’t forget that they are managed by Felipe Alou who will be no spring chicken at age 71. This compulsion to sign aging stars has also had an impact on their farm system as other teams take their draft picks as compensation for the signings. In last year’s amateur draft they didn’t have a pick until the fourth round, and they haven’t had a first round selection since 2003. That coupled with their proclivity to trade away anyone in their system for a rent-a-player has led to them parting ways with pitchers the likes of Joe Nathan, Fancisco Liriano, Jerome Williams, and Jesse Foppert.

Diamondbacks (80 – 82): These guys are a hard team to measure. They’re sort of boring, though they may have made themselves a bit more exciting by adding Eric Byrnes for a year. They made a good move in re-acquiring Miguel Batista, who excelled in Arizona as a swing man. This year they will begin to work in their buffer crop of hitting talent as Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew push major leaguers Tony Clark, Shawn Green, Byrnes, and Craig Counsell from the lineup. Their pitching is still a couple of years away from being ready and they would serve themselves well by finding some takers for Russ Ortiz and Orlando Hernandez before their value becomes nil. They also need to find a closer who will last them more than half a year. Believe it or not, Byung-Hyun Kim is still the most consistent and uninjured closer the franchise ever had.

Padres (78 – 84): The Padres seem to have realized that they’re not going be a home run hitting club in their current stadium. At least the way their roster is currently constructed, they haven’t added anyone who’s capable of increasing their home run output from a year ago. That team of a year ago was possibly the most unglamorous postseason team that I can think of, and they rolled over and died as expected in the first round. They never even led in one inning of any of the three games against the Cards. Their admission to the postseason may have been more a cause of the rest of the division’s lackluster play, than of their own ability to win games. And that division, which let them win while being only two games over .500, has corrected many of its flawed teams of 2005. The Padres, on the other hand, overpaid to keep Giles and Hoffman until father time catches up with them. This team will be scrappy with the likes of Dave Roberts and Mike Cameron, but they will not be as good as they were last year.

Rockies (70 – 92): There are still a lot of growing pains yet to go through for this young team. If they could they should clone Jeff Francis, he’s figuring out how to win games at Coors Field (8-4, 4.88 ERA), now he just needs to figure out how to win games on the road (6-8 6.40 ERA). With kids like Francis, Fuentes, Atkins, and Barmes the future is looking up for the mile highers, but a winning season is still a year or two away.

NL Central

2006-01-11T09:03:00.000-05:00

Cardinals (98 – 64): This was a very strong club that actually got a bit weaker. On the field they replaced Mark Grudzielanek, Larry Walker, and Reggie Sanders with Junior Spivey, Juan Encarnacion, and Larry Bigbie. If we take their career OPS and average them together then the Cardinals are trading an average OPS of .846 for .758. If we take the average of last year’s OPS then they are trading .837 for .676. Those are quite significant drop-offs, and you can bet that they will translate to the amount of runs the Cards score. But with a healthy Rolen the entire season, along with some guy named Poo-Holes, they should score enough runs to be very competitive. Matt Morris will not be as hard to replace as some think. Last year he was only about as good as Jason Marquis and not as good as Jeff Suppan. They should have plenty of depth with Sidney Ponson competing with youngster Anthony Reyes for the last spot in the rotation. Now we’ll see if Duncan and La Russa can actually develop a pitcher, something they have never really had much success at doing (save for the recently departed Matt Morris). DIVISION WINNER

Brewers (90 – 72): Every year a club surprises people, and in 2006 it is going to be the Milwaukee Brewers. They are vastly underrated by many people around baseball. A lot will depend on how their youngsters fare in their first full major league season. But with the big bat of Carlos Lee in the middle of the order, all Ned Yost has to do is pencil in the pieces around him. They will by a dynamic team with speed throughout the order and the willingness to use it. Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy will form the core of the Brew-crew for years to come. Sheets, Davis, and Capuano are the front three of one of the least appreciated starting rotations in baseball. They will continue to improve under the tutelage of perhaps the best young pitching coach in the business, Mike Maddux. The addition to the coaching staff of Brewer legend Robin Yount will have a profound impact on this young team’s character. WILD CARD WINNER

Astros (88 – 74): I may be undervaluing the ‘Stros a bit. After all, they did go all the way to the World Series in 2005. And they are bound to have a healthy Lance Berkman for the entire season. But this team has been really lucky the past few years, and that’s not just the jaded Braves fan in me talking. Miraculous comebacks and an abnormal Beltran postseason aside, this team has limped into the postseason and scratched and clawed their way from one round to the next. Their consistency on offense will be tested this year as the rest of the division gets stronger and more competitive. There is no doubt that Pettitte and Oswalt may be the best 1-2 pitching combination in all of baseball, but after them there is a sharp drop-off. Brandon Backe has stints of brilliance, but overall he’s a fourth starter at best. After him they will fill in with youngsters Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio. The departure (at least until May) of Roger Clemens will impact this team more than most people think. His 26 quality starts will be next to impossible to replace; Backe, Rodriquez, and Astacio had 25 between them last year. Even if he returns in May, his one month absence may be enough to keep the Astros from making the postseason.

Cubs (84 – 78): Dusty Baker is the most overrated manager in baseball. He doesn’t know how to handle a pitching staff, and he doesn’t know how to develop young players. Prior and Wood have had injuries each of the last two years, will this be Zambrano’s year to stumble. Regardless of if he gets hurt or not, Zambrano’s home runs allowed are headed in an alarming direction over the last three years: 9, 14, 21. And he is relying more and more on the strikeout (K/9): 7.07, 8.07, 8.14. Greg Maddux will pitch as long as you let him, but over the last four years his effectiveness is slipping (ERA): 2.62, 3.96, 4.02, 4.24. The loveable losers will keep on losing, and Baker will keep on chewing on that toothpick.

Pirates (78 – 84): These guys have vastly improved themselves. They finally realized they needed to surround Bay with more than the Wilson boys. Sean Casey’s respected veteran presence will have an amazing impact on this club. He will help youngsters like Chris Duffy, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Castillo come into their own. Their pitching has a lot of promise with Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, but guys like Oliver Perez and Kip Wells might be headed in the wrong direction and need to find some consistency. This team is getting better, but it is still a year or two away from being competitive.

Reds (68 – 94): They must not believe in an investment in pitching. This team, with a surplus of good hitting, made only one trade to try and improve the NL’s worst pitching staff. And the acquisition of the mediocre Dave Williams for well-respected slugger Sean Casey seemed more like a salary dump than a move to improve their staff. The only real question this year is who will lead the team in home runs; slugger Adam Dunn who hit 40 HR last season, or sluggers best friend pitcher Eric Milton, who surrendered 40 HR last season. And don’t try to blame Milton’s gopher ball problem on the GAB, his home / road HR allowed split reads 21 / 19. If you’re a baseball fan who likes home runs, go to a Reds game and you’ll see plenty.

NL East

2006-01-10T09:22:00.000-05:00

Braves (95 – 67): Who else did you expect me to pick to win the East. They won it last year with a rag-tag group of kids from AA. The only question is how are they going to engineer it this season. Will they win with pitching in the post Leo Mazzone era? Will they win with hitting now that AJ has proven he can hit 50 dingers? How much better will they be if Chipper is healthy for an entire season? They are still a team with holes in the bullpen and left field, but holes on this team are just opportunities for creativity from Schu and Cox. The Braves are still very young, and that can be a plus as well as an obstacle. Look for the rest of the East to be scratching their heads in late September wondering how it is the Braves have bested them once again. DIVISION WINNER

Mets (89 – 73): These guys are going to be the ones really scratching their heads and wondering what went wrong. They added Pedro and Beltran last year and it wasn’t enough. They’ve added Delgado and Wagner this year, but will that be enough to close the gap? They will put up more runs this year, but they will only go as far as their starting pitching takes them. After Pedro, every other starter has some questions surrounding him. Does Glavine have another year left in him? Can Benson, Zambrano, and Trachsel be more than back of the rotation starters with ERAs in the fours? Jose Reyes will have to learn how to get on base at more than a .300 clip, because with his speed and the bats behind him, when he gets on base he scores. Make no mistake about it, if he isn’t already, David Wright will become the star of this team.

Phillies (81 – 81): Who is the real Bobby Abreu? Is he the batter that slugged out 18 home runs before the break and put on a show to win the home run derby, or is he the batter that only hit 6 home runs the rest of the way. Can Ryan Howard be the run producer everyone thinks he will be? What’s alarming about his numbers last year is that in only 348 plate appearances he stuck out 100 times. Over a 162 game season that works out to around 171 strikeouts, which would have led the majors last year. Not that recently departed Jim Thome was any better, as he has topped 170 strikeouts four times in his career. But Thome knew how to draw a walk as well as strikeout; Howard has not yet learned that. But the real question with this team is how will the pitching hold up in what is considered by some to be Coors Field East. And how will Tom Gordon react if he blows a couple of saves in a row and the fans in Philly let him have it.

Nationals (74 – 88): Was anyone worse last year than Cristian Guzman? Maybe they’ll put Soriano at short and keep Vidro at second. This team didn’t get any better with the additions of Soriano and pitcher Brian Lawrence. The player they will miss the most is Brad Wilkerson. Even though he took a small step back last year, he was still the spark that ignited that team. Can Ryan Church take his place in the lineup and give them that spark? The window of opportunity for Tony Armas Jr. and Ryan Drese to prove they are effective major league starting pitchers is closing fast.

Marlins (41 – 121): Well, I’m glad to see that Wes Helms found a job. And it’s better than being stuck in AAA, although the Marlins are going to seem like a minor league club this year. Seriously can anyone pencil in half of their starting lineup. How about their starting rotation. After Dontrelle and the uncompromisingly below average Brian Mohler, the entire 40-man roster has only started a total of 42 major league games. Perhaps their slogan should be, “Willis and Mohler, and anyone else with a shoulder.”

This Week: 2006 NL Predictions

2006-01-09T10:44:00.000-05:00

On the heels of my bold AL predicting comes the more important NL predicting. I can say that over half of you are going to disagree with my wild card pick, but I can only remind you that this is purely my opinion, and I have tried to back up my picks with an explanatory blurb.

Here is the schedule for the week:
NL East – Tuesday, January 10th
NL Central – Wednesday, January 11th
NL West – Thursday, January 12th
NL Award Winners – Friday, January 13th

Also, a big thank you to Joe over at Talking Chop for the great mention on his site. One cannot say enough good things about the job he does blogging the Braves.

AL Award Winners

2006-01-06T09:27:00.000-05:00

MVP: Sometimes it takes a couple of good years for people to figure out how good you are, and if that’s the case then Indians DH Travis Hafner will be the AL MVP in 2006. His numbers will be enough to overcome the East coast awards bias. Look for him to post a 40 HR season and a top five batting average to go along with his league leading RBI total. He’s an animal with runners on base, and thrives in pressure situations. Apologies to Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.

Cy Young: How Colon ever won this award last year I will never know. Apparently, too many writers value wins over any other indicator of what constitutes quality pitching. This year the award will return to its rightful owner in the person of Johan Santan. His 2005 season was just as dominant as his 2004 Cy Young season, though he came up just short in wins. So if the major qualifier for this award is ticks in the win column then here’s to hoping Johan tops 20 wins so that the writers who vote will get it right this year. Apologies to Rich Harden and Cliff Lee.

Rookie of the Year: A glimmer of hope for Red Sox Fans will be the budding star of Craig Hansen. Out of the Huston Street mold, Hansen may be pressed into duty if Foulke can’t come back from last year’s injuries. And while many will want to move Timlin into the closers role, it’s eventually going to be Hansen’s, and Boston will give him his shot. Apologies to Kenji Johjima and Francisco Liriano.

Comeback Player of the Year Award presented by Viagra: I had to bone up on my baseball knowledge to figure this one out. There were some stats I had to straighten out before. . . okay, I’ll stop. The new South Side Thumper Jim Thome takes home this award. He will benefit greatly from not having to play the field, not to mention being surrounded in the batting order by Konerko and Dye. Apologies to Roy Halladay and Rocco Baldelli.

Manager of the Year: Since the White Sox edged out Cleveland last year, and Guillen edged Wedge as well, it only seems natural that the better of the two teams’ managers will win the award in 2006. So because I have Cleveland besting Chicago in the AL Central, that means Eric Wedge is in line to win the best skipper of 2006. Apologies to Ken Macha and John Gibbons.

AL West

2006-01-05T11:59:00.000-05:00

Athletics (89 – 73): The A’s didn’t do too much this off-season, but with their young crop of talent, they didn’t have to. They’re also looking pretty smart for wrapping up Loaiza early in the off-season, as the price for starters has skyrocketed. After posting a home ERA under 3.00 in RFK last season, Loaiza should enjoy the even more friendly pitching confines of the virus-free McAfee Coliseum. The real story is how Milton Bradley will fare in Oakland. Will his sometimes harsh nature infect the clubhouse, or will he silence that and let his hustle do the talking for him. Look for Rich Harden to compete for the AL Cy Young and lead one of the best pitching staffs in the game, if not the best with Harden, Barry Zito, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Esteban Loaiza. DIVISION WINNER

Angels (88 – 74): The Halos did a lot of standing pat this off-season as well, save for the swap of over-the-hillers Finley for Alfonso. The rest of the division is catching up with them, and their age is going to let the A’s overtake them this year. They need to infuse this team with the young talent now and let go of the Erstad’s and Anderson’s. Anderson’s OPS the last three years is going in the wrong direction: .885, .789, .743. Is Vlad’s OPS headed in the same direction: 1.012, .989, .959? Erstad is becoming a strikeout machine: 40, 74, 109.

Mariners (83 – 79): This team can’t be as bad as they were last year. They added another Japanese player in catcher Kenji Johjima to keep Ichiro company. It will be interesting to see how he makes the transition to the states as the first catcher to come over from the land of the rising sun. Don’t look for Beltre to be any better than he was last year. His OPS from 2001 to 2005 reads, .720, .729, .714, 1.017, .716. Maybe the M’s should have just signed him to a one year contract instead of that five year cash fest. Odds are he won’t put up numbers like he did in his first free agent year of ’04 until his next walk year in ’09. But the real question is will his contract be the worst one on the books, or will the averageness of Washburn and his bloated salary win the prize.

Rangers (81 – 81): Well they did what they said they would never do, and gave a pitcher a five year contract (well okay, four years with a vesting fifth year). Will the Millwood signing and the Eaton and Padilla trades be enough to boost the Rangers out of the cellar? Not this year, but I have stumbled upon the key. The answer to the Rangers’ quest for a trip to the World Series is to get rid of Buck Showalter, and the next year they’re virtually guaranteed to win the fall classic. After the Yankees got rid of Showalter in ’95, they won the Series with Torre in ’96. After Arizona got rid of Showalter in 2000, they won the Series with Brenly in 2001. They can hire whoever they want, hell, hire broadcaster Josh Lewin, it doesn’t matter just get rid of Showalter and the next year they’re a shoe-in to win it all.

AL Central

2006-01-04T11:01:00.000-05:00

Indians (95 – 67): Even though they lost out on Millwood and had to settle on Wickman again, the core of this team is still solid. They learned how to win last year, but it was too late. In 2006 they’ll use that knowledge and experience of how to win starting on opening day instead of taking the first month off. For all you fantasy baseball players, Grady Sizemore might be next year’s Bobby Abreu. With over 20 HR and 20 SB in 2005, to go along with 111 Runs and 81 RBIs, he’s about to be Brady Anderson on steroids. . . oh, wait. DIVISION WINNER

White Sox (94 – 68): Ozzie Guillen is wacky and his act may wear thin at times, but he’ll put a winner on the field every game. Can he overcome the year-after pressures and keep his team focused through all the defending champ hoopla? How will Vazquez fare being a couple hundred more miles closer to the East coast than he was, and can he pitch in the cold of Chicago and readjust to the American League. He has been jerked back and forth between leagues from Montreal (NL) to New York (AL) to Arizona (NL) to Chicago (AL) for four years in a row and his stuff has not adjusted. Is Guillen the right manager for his fragile ego? WILD CARD WINNER

Twins (85 – 77): They’re a good enough team to be eight or so games over .500, but they just don’t have the hitting to rank up there with Cleveland or Chicago. They will be better than they were last year, but not by much. Until they develop someone who can hit more than 23 home runs in a season their ability to catch the two teams ahead of them in their division will be limited.

Royals (74 – 88): Aside from the best 3-4-3 double play combination in baseball (Mientkiewicz to Grudzielanek and back to Mientkiewicz) they made some other no frills additions, and those will be enough to pull them out of the cellar. In signing the afore mentioned infielders as well as Reggie Sanders, they’ve added some solid hitters to surround Mike Sweeney, and they’ve bought time for some of their young players to develop while they put a more competitive team on the field. Elarton, Redman, and Dessens will eat some innings while posting ERA’s north of 5, but they’ll rack up double digit wins and take pressure off last year’s over-taxed bullpen.

Tigers (69 – 93): Does it even matter who their manager is? Leyland’s just going to sit on the bench with his legs crossed smoking cigarettes. One must check out all the former Pirates on his coaching staff. Could this team be full of more average players than they already have, oh wait, Rondell White is no longer a Tiger. And the Bobby Higginson era finally comes to an end to every Tiger fan’s delight. Can I-Rod do any worse than last year’s .290 on-base percentage; we’ll see.

A Useful Tool From ESPN

2006-01-04T09:07:00.000-05:00

ESPN put up some useful charts showing each teams' starting lineup and starting rotation (projected starters). The starting lineup is listed catcher through right field and not in a supposed batting order fashion, but it is still a great way to take a quick glance at all the teams. American League National League

AL East

2006-01-03T14:57:00.000-05:00

Yankees (104 – 58): Just like the Bravos, they find a way to win the East every year – eight in a row now, and eleven straight playoff appearances. Their All-Star lineup added even more punch this year, and for the first off-season in a while did so without using their farm system. Credit GM Brian Cashman for holding on to his prospects while still improving the team – of course, when your spending money is equivalent to Fort Knox that’s not hard to do. If they use 14 starting pitchers like they did in 2005 they will once again make it interesting for the rest of the division in 2006, but if their starters can stay healthy they’ll wrap it up by the end of August. DIVISION WINNER

Blue Jays (91 – 71): Sorry Boston fans, as much as I like the Red Sox, I’m a big fan of ‘pitching wins championships,’ and in Boston’s case let me say that healthy pitching wins championships. Toronto has made the moves to make this team better, and their starting pitching can match up with anyone in the league. They have also added punch to their lineup to go along with the players they’ve developed that together will put up enough runs to win plenty of games. And if they are close games, then they’ve got a happy ending with B.J.

Red Sox (84 – 78): Yes, the Lester’s and Paplebon’s are another year away from making an impact, but my guess is they’ll be forced into action by injuries to old man Schilling and the annual bi-monthly Beckett blister. The team can survive without Damon’s bat, but not without his energy. Mueller and Millar are gone, and the idiots are all but a legend. It’s time to re-tool with the kids and load up for 2007.

Devil Rays (78 – 84): Late bloomers last year, this team will benefit from not having the overbearing Lou Pinella under foot all the time. Their kids are all maturing at the same time, and this is the year they start to separate themselves from the cellar dwellers. As the second half of last year showed, they have achieved .500 baseball. But maybe .500 baseball is too much to ask, maybe it’s enough just to have them not lose 90+ games, something they’ve never done.

Orioles (68 – 94): Yeah, I think they’re this bad. They have too many holes and not enough bats to fill them. Leo Mazzone will help some of their young guns develop, but when you can’t hit the ball unless you’re named Tejada then losing is inevitable. The off-season saga is not yet completed for the O’s, as we are yet to find out whether or not they will trade Tejada, and what they are going to do with two starting catchers in Hernandez and Lopez.

2006 Predictions

2006-01-03T14:56:00.000-05:00

Over the next two weeks, of what promises to be very lean with baseball related news, I will present my predictions of what teams will finish where and who will win what awards. I’ve always wanted to actually do this, I’ve talked about it for years, but I’ve never put it in writing. So far it has been an interesting endeavor. I have been bold enough to not only predict what order each team will finish, but also what their record will be. Feel free to disagree, but after all this is only my opinion. I have, however, tried to back up my predictions with a blurb of why I rank each team where I do.

Here is the schedule for the next two weeks:
AL East – Tuesday, January 3rd
AL Central – Wednesday, January 4th
AL West – Thursday, January 5th
AL Award Winners – Friday, January 6th
NL East – Tuesday, January 10th
NL Central – Wednesday, January 11th
NL West – Thursday, January 12th
NL Award Winners – Friday, January 13th

Blauser’s Braves

2005-12-28T14:51:00.000-05:00

As has been reported for several weeks now, Jeff Blauser was named the manager of the AA Mississippi Braves for the upcoming season. I point this out now because there are some good interviews/links that I’ve come across. Over at Talking Chop, Joe has finally :) posted his interview with Jeff. As always, it was a great interview with plenty of good prospect questions – really good stuff for Braves fanatics.

The M-Braves site has the Jeff Blauser press conference available for download on mp3. It’s an 11 minute interview on a 10MB file. The local paper has the highlights in this article.

If you’re interested in Jeff Blauser the player, here are his career stats. He was a 2-time all-star and won the Silver Slugger for shortstops in ’97. Interestingly, he was originally drafted by the Cardinals, and then later in the year drafted by the Braves back when they had two drafts per year.

A Tuesday with a Monday Feel

2005-12-27T16:19:00.000-05:00

So, because there’s like no one at work, I’ve got a lot of extra time on my hands. But since there’s nothing really baseball to blog about - unless you care about the Yankees / Red Sox telenovela - I’ve been doing some extra hard surfing of the internet (which I think they should somehow turn into a sport).

I’m a big fan of our terror alert system, I mean it’s just so plain and simple to understand and it keeps you so fearful all the time. Some mornings I just huddle around the tele and scroll through all the 24-hour news channels that have nothing better to talk about than the latest Lohan sighting and wait for them to tell me if I should be afraid today. Some bloggers put the terror alert level in its place here, here, and here.

So enough about Linds and our color coded catastrophe calculator. For whatever reason this afternoon I stumbled onto some sites of musical artists I’ve been meaning to purchase for awhile, and there are plenty of free mp3s abound. Some people call it alt-folk or roots folk/roots rock, and it’s some pretty good stuff – Iron & Wine and Calexico. I’m a big fan of hearing a lot of a musician’s work before I purchase an album; with these two you can do that here. It’s not for everybody, but I’m diggin’ it.

Added Some Links

2005-12-27T10:49:00.000-05:00

Not much baseball news to talk about, other than my discovery that Andruw Jones’ middle name is Rudolf – which is quite seasonal, I think.

I added some more Baseball Links that I like to frequent to the column on the right:

Baseball Crank is an interesting combo site of baseball and (right of center) politics. He has some interesting opinions on both, and if you don’t appreciate the politics you can use the baseball-only content link at the top to filter it out.

The Hardball Times is a digest style blog which also happens to have some great sortable statistics which are free to use. There are plenty of contributors so the writing is varied and stays fresh.

Baseball Reference is another handy stats site with TONS of info that is well organized by topic. They also have a great Travel section with a Travel Guide that allows you to search using a city or zip code for baseball attractions nearby.

Finally, Baseball-Links is a decent site for finding links to other sites about baseball. Good for international baseball sites. Suffers a bit from link-rot.

Ligtenberg in a Bottle

2005-12-21T10:56:00.000-05:00

In the midst of some minor player movement, the Braves signed Independent League relief pitcher Ben Grezlovski. Never heard of him? Nether had I. But of course no one had ever heard of Kerry Ligtenberg when he came out of the Independent Leagues in ’97 and became a solid contributor to the Atlanta bullpen, only to take over the closer’s role the following year. Could this be what Schu is talking about when he says ‘lightning in a bottle.’

In other minor player movement, our Dan Kolb consolation prize was not tendered a contract (though we may sign him to a minor league deal). And Jim Brower was also non-tendered, let’s hope we don’t see him again. He was, how do you say, real shitty.

Over in Devil Ray land, Joe Borowski was designated for assignment, which means they have 15 days to trade or release him. That move probably means that there was sufficient interest in him from other clubs that the Rays didn’t want to just make him a free agent. But Tampa’s ineptitude at making any major trades this winter will likely continue.

It’s looking more and more like it’s going to be Chris Reitsma closing out games in ’06. With that in mind, let’s look on the bright side of Reitsma. Last July when he assumed the closer’s role he was dominant until apparently getting hurt. He was such a good reliever in July that he won the Rolaids Relief Man Award for that month. This proves that he can close, and close effectively. . . when healthy. The Braves have never been afraid to let anyone take over the closer’s role – see Ligtenberg, Rocker, Stanton, etc. They are certainly showing no fear this off-season.

Spending Too Wisely?

2005-12-19T11:12:00.000-05:00

Well, actually we aren’t spending anything. After the Braves lost out on Farnsworth, Hoffman, T. Jones, and Wickman for not offering enough cash in a contract, they are about to lose out on another reliever who everyone thought would be a cinch to sign in Atlanta. Makes me wonder what we are going to spend our money on next year. Of course, this guy might be available shortly, as it looks like the Brewers are going to non-tender Kolb.

Speaking of Tuesday’s deadline to offer contracts to players, it will be interesting to see if any other pitchers jump on the market that might attract the Braves’ interest. Former Cubs closer Joe Borowski is likely to be available as is Ramon Ortiz. Ortiz is a former Reds and Angles pitcher who has primarily been a starter in his career, although in 2004 he was much more effective as a reliever, posting a 2.76 ERA against a 4.72 career ERA. Borowski was a reliever for the Braves during parts of the ’96 and ’97 seasons, posting decent numbers. He blossomed in ’03 as the Cubs closer when he recorded 33 saves while posting a 2.63 ERA before suffering a shoulder injury in June of ’04. Borowski seemed to regain his form for Tampa Bay at the end of last season, posting a 3.82 ERA after the All-Star break. Since he is a former Brave he may draw quite a bit of interest if he is non-tendered by the Devil Rays.

The Cubs Corey Patterson may also be non-tendered and may draw some interest as a candidate to lead-off and play left field.

Blank the Braves

2005-12-15T13:25:00.000-05:00

So, apparently the Atlanta Braves are for sale, I don’t know if you’ve heard or not. If you live around Atlanta, you’d have to live in bubble not to have heard. And you’d also have to be a bubble boy not to know that everyone and their brother have suggested that Arthur Blank buy the team. So let me just hop on this band wagon and say that I too would pick Arthur Blank as my first choice to buy the Braves.

The bottom line on Blank is that he knows how to get fans in the seats. For the Falcons he turned the routine of one to two sellout games a season into every game being a sellout, even preseason. Blank knows the value of a team with a superstar like Vick, so he must know the value of the Braves with stars the likes of Jones, Jones, Smoltz, and Francoeur.

But I believe the transformation of the Atlanta Braves needs to go further than just an owner with marketing prowess. We need an owner who can turn baseball in Atlanta into something other than a commuter sport. Something more than a stadium planted in the middle of parking lots. Atlanta is not only ready, but Atlanta needs the neighborhood stadium.

I’m not talking about building a new stadium in some yet-to-be-determined neighborhood of Atlanta. I’m talking about building a neighborhood in the parking lots around our current stadium. Take away the acres of parking spaces that go unused for half the year and plant houses and condos and lofts and markets in their place. Take a look at the picture below. Take a look at all the parking lots that border The Ted.

Building a neighborhood is not a foreign idea in the Atlanta metro area. We build more neighborhoods than almost anyone else in the country. Even within the city of Atlanta we have built and are building neighborhoods from empty lots and abandoned land. And the City of Atlanta is emphasizing neighborhoods in their effort to revitalize downtown. So why not try and bring the feel of the neighborhood stadiums of Boston and Chicago to Atlanta.

Oh sure, there are plenty of places to build and hide parking desks for the throngs of people that stream in from the burbs, and they could even be built adjacent to the interstate for easy access to and from. There they could also serve as a barrier to the traffic noise for our newly built neighborhood.

Building a surrounding neighborhood would no longer make The Ted a Wal-Mart stadium (Wal-Mart being a destination which is rarely surrounded by other stores). You could come to The Ted a few hours before the game and walk through the blocks around the stadium that wind from Hank Aaron Hill to Dale Murphy Drive. Stop off at one of the many watering holes and have a cold one before heading over to your favorite deli to pick up a couple of sandwiches before heading across the street to the game.

Other baseball cities have transformed downtowns by making the baseball stadium a neighborhood ballpark. San Diego moved from a stadium surrounded by parking lots to one on the edge of their old downtown. Denver built its baseball park in the middle of the city. These are two cities that have become even greater baseball towns because their ballparks are right there among the neighborhoods.

Another thing that the neighborhood stadium creates is an atmosphere of ownership for the fans. Bostonians and Chicagoans can say that the stadium is a part of the city. Atlantans can only say that the city has a stadium, but that the stadium feels removed from the city somehow. It is still in a way just the municipal mega-plex that was the old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium. Sure you can see the skyline behind the scoreboard, but you know that it’s off in the distance. You know that there is a void between the city and the ballpark. You know there is a moat of paved nothingness that removes you from Atlanta when you go to the ballpark.

Don’t get me wrong with all this ranting I’m doing, I am a big fan of Turner Field and the job that the Braves do in making it fan-friendly. But we as a city still do not feel like we ‘own’ the Braves. We’re still fair-weather fans ready to jump ship at the first 3-game losing streak. Building a neighborhood right up to the ballpark would bridge the asphalt and apathy gap between Atlanta and its baseball team.

Arthur Blank or not, the person or group of people or corporation that buys this team has an opportunity to reunite Atlanta with its ballpark and bring them closer than ever before. Whoever owns the team has to make the fans feel like they own it. That’s the trick to a larger fan base, even when we eventually run out of winning seasons.

Fancy New Logo

2005-12-14T13:32:00.000-05:00

It may not look that fancy, but I was pulling my hair out trying to put it together. I swear, learning how to use Adobe Photoshop is like learning a new language. Anyway, I’d like to get a better looking Atlanta ‘A,’ so if I come across one in the future (or if anyone has one that they can send me) I’ll change it up.

Free Toque Anyone

2005-12-13T11:19:00.000-05:00

Seriously, what comes to mind when someone says ‘toque.’ I know I had to go look it up. Maybe it’s just that I’m not up on the latest in Canadian fashion. Maybe it’s the fact that I’ve lived in the warm and sunny south my whole life. So the Blue Jays are giving away a free ‘toque’ with every gift card purchase. Money quote:

“Purchase a Blue Jays Gift Card this holiday season and receive a warm fuzzy feeling.”

I’m not making this shit up. These Canadians must not be aware of the double entendre. The Urban Dictionary sheds a bit of light on the varied meanings of ‘toque,’ and possibly sets the stage for the rare triple entendre with number three. The Blue Jays need to find a better name for this other than ‘toque.’

Edgar Speaks

2005-12-12T15:01:00.000-05:00

Here is an interesting interview with Edgar Renteria from the Boston Globe. Money quote:

“’The ball bounces too much in the field of the shortstop, where I play,’ he said. ‘The field is not good like other stadiums. One day it's bad, the next day, it's worse . . . I was uncomfortable the whole year.’”

I don’t quite buy his excuse for the poor fielding last year. He had 16 errors at home and 14 errors on the road; not that big of a discrepancy. The Red Sox as a team had a 54/55 home/road error split; no Fenway fielding folly there. The Red Sox’ opponents had a 56/51 home/Fenway error split; still no indication of a bad surface at Fenway. So it must have been because of this:

“Renteria said he ‘pulled [his] lower back and leg’ catching a ground ball, though he wasn't specific as to when that occurred. He was clear in that it handicapped him.
‘It was really uncomfortable,’ he said. ‘It is not the same thing to play at 100 percent than at 50 or 60 percent.’”

Renteria is a player that will play through minor injuries, so maybe that was it. Let’s hope it’s not age catching up with him.

What About Wilkerson

2005-12-09T16:58:00.000-05:00

One final thought before the weekend and my brain shuts off, would Brad Wilkerson be a good fit for the Braves. He just got traded from Washington to Texas for Alfonso Soriano, and the buzz has it that Texas is going to ship him somewhere else. Wilkerson has played a lot of left field and he’s done a lot of leading off. He may only be a career .260 hitter leading off, but he has a .372 on-base percentage. Isn’t that the whole job of the leadoff hitter; to get on base? By comparison, while Furcal has a higher career average hitting leadoff at .281, his on-base percentage is only .346. And Wilkerson would only cost about $5 million next year.

I am going to ‘speculate’ that we could pry Wilkerson from the Rangers for Betemit and either Horacio or Sosa. I know that the Rangers are wanting a second baseman in return, so maybe we could 3-way with Toronto (with Orlando Hudson). I think getting an on-base percentage guy like Wilkerson would be a good move.

Can I Get A Closer Over Here

2005-12-09T12:13:00.000-05:00

So now that Schu has filled one of three stated needs in acquiring shortstop Edgar Renteria from Boston, he turns his attention to the two remaining holes on the Atlanta roster; leadoff hitter and closer. Let’s take a look at some of the options available at closer and the possible direction the Braves might head.

Free Agents
They’re all gone. All of them. Jones is in Detroit, Wickman in Cleveland, Hoffman in San Diego, Farnsworth in New York, Gordon in Philly, all gone. The only person of note, of which there has been some talk of the Braves signing, is Octavio Dotel. Dotel is coming off of elective Tommy John surgery, but may not be ready until midsummer. Still, the Braves may be willing to take a chance that Dotel can regain his pre-surgery form. Former Mets closer Braden Looper is available, but he’s not too good. Former Arizona closer Matt Mantei is also unsigned, but he is several years (and surgeries) removed from closing.

Trades
Dannys Baez is still out there as an option, so is Toronto’s Miguel Bautista. I would rate both as below average closers on last place ball clubs (see Dan Kolb). Other than those two, there have been no other rumors of any other closers being available. Of course the Royals are always willing to deal Jeremy Affeldt away, but he’s not that good either.

Development
The Braves have a host of closer candidates in their organization. Reitsma struggled at times last year due to injury (and a lot of bad luck). Devine got bombed in several of his appearances, but was also injured and fatigued due to pitching more innings than ever before. Both of these options make me a bit nervous. Other bullpen guys like Blaine Boyer or minor league free agent Brad Baker could be options for the closer’s role. A dark horse candidate might be rookie Anthony Lerew, who some have suggested has the makeup to be a power closer. The development track might be the route the Braves take as was recently hinted by Schu:
“[W]e've got some arms that in the past we've really liked. If they rebound like we hope they can, we may very well catch lightning in a bottle.”

Conclusions
I don’t think the Braves are going to trade away any of their top players or prospects for a Baez or Bautista. I can see them signing Dotel to a one or two year deal and seeing if he pans out. It looks as though they are content to sit back for a while and see if any interesting offers for the right guy pop up. There will be no knee jerk reaction to the dried up closers market to go out and overpay for a below average guy. If the Kolb trade taught them anything it is to make sure you trade for someone who has proven he can close for more than one or two years. I have a feeling we’re in a holding pattern on the closer front.

Renteria Reactions

2005-12-09T12:10:00.000-05:00

There are some interesting opinions all over the media about the Renteria trade:

Jeff Schultz at the AJC thinks Renteria is not a replacement, but an upgrade. He’s also not too disappointed we traded away Marte:
“The amusing thing about the Braves supposedly giving up the organization’s ‘best prospect’ for Renteria in Andy Marte is that the ‘best prospects’ are already on the roster.
Marte might have a future, but he hardly was untouchable and he still looks to be a year removed from major league-ready. And for him they get Edgar Renteria? This trade was a slam dunk.
Renteria is not a replacement. He is an upgrade.”

Bob Ryan at the Boston Globe thinks the pressures of the city and the fans got to Renteria:
“Tony La Russa hinted that Edgar was far too sensitive to thrive in this diamond hothouse [Boston], didn't he? The Cardinals' skipper could have been unable to resist taking a gentle swipe at the team and town that had stolen his shortstop, or he could have been telling the gospel truth. If he was, then Atlanta is a great spot for Renteria. It will be June before someone even notices that Rafael Furcal is gone.”

Some good quotes from Mike Bauman at MLB.com:
“[I]f you can assume Renteria will regain his pre-2005 form in the field, not only have the Braves replaced Furcal, but they also have managed an upgrade.”
And:
“Marte is a player of truly significant potential, and the Red Sox were very happy to land him. But this is also part of the beauty of the Braves organization. Players of significant potential keep getting churned out, either to fill the needs of the Major League club -- as they did last season in record numbers -- or to be available in trades for established talent, as Marte was here for Renteria.”
And my favorite:
“You've seen this before from the Braves. It is exactly this sort of thing that reminds you why those 14 consecutive division titles have been produced by this organization. Their Plan B so often ends up being better than somebody else's Plan A.”

Possible Lineup Scenarios

2005-12-08T16:45:00.000-05:00

In light of our recent trades and the acquisition of Edgar Renteria from the Red Sox, I thought this would be a good moment to churn out some possible lineups for next year. Since we don’t seem to possess a bona fide leadoff hitter (yet), there are several different versions listed.

Lineup A
1. M. Giles (R) – 2B
2. E. Renteria (R) – SS
3. C. Jones (S) – 3B
4. A. Jones (R) – CF
5. A. LaRoche (L) – 1B
6. J. Francoeur (R) – RF
7. B. McCann (L) – C
8. R. Langerhans (L) / K. Johnson (L) – LF
Comments: This version makes the top of the lineup lopsided with right handed hitters, and the bottom of the lineup lopsided with left handed hitters. This lineup also throws all of the young players at the bottom of the lineup where they are not protected by more experienced hitters.

Lineup B
1. R. Langerhans (L) / K. Johnson (L) – LF
2. M. Giles (R) – 2B
3. C. Jones (S) – 3B
4. A. Jones (R) – CF
5. A. LaRoche (L) – 1B
6. J. Francoeur (R) – RF
7. E. Renteria (R) – SS
8. B. McCann (L) – C
Comments: This gets a bit more lefty/righty back and forth throughout the lineup. Throughout his career, Renteria has been a much better hitter lower in the lineup. The Red Sox hit him second last year for the vast majority of games. As a number 2 hitter in 2005 Renteria compiled a .278 average with a .337 on-base percentage. But as a number 7 hitter in the Red Sox lineup last year he compiled a .314 average with a .415 OBP. We can track his numbers the same way from 2002 – 2004. Batting 2nd he was .281 / .333, batting 7th he was .330 / .403 (also, batting 5th .315 / .387, batting 6th .299 / .347). As of late, he seems to feel more comfortable hitting lower in a batting order. The main problem with this lineup is the untested guys hitting leadoff.

Lineup C
1. E. Renteria (R) – SS
2. M. Giles (R) – 2B
3. C. Jones (S) – 3B
4. A. Jones (R) – CF
5. A. LaRoche (L) – 1B
6. J. Francoeur (R) – RF
7. B. McCann (L) – C
8. R. Langerhans (L) / K. Johnson (L) – LF
Comments: Since Renteria has hit in the leadoff spot for all of 48 at-bats the last five years, this lineup probably won’t happen. It’s also right/lefty top and bottom lopsided.

Overall, I’m a big fan of Lineup B. Even though neither of the guys that would be leading off have had much experience with that, it does not disturb the other batters in the order. Some people have suggested putting Giles in the leadoff spot because he gets on base well, but his career numbers in the first spot in the order are .264 / .339 as opposed to his number batting second, .303 / .372. Giles is a lot more effective as a number two batter, and since Renteria is not as effective a number two hitter as he is in the lower part of the order then it makes more sense to keep Giles at 2 and Renteria at 6 or 7. I also like a veteran like Renteria hitting behind Francoeur, it should improve the pitches he will see and take some of the pressure to produce off of him.

As for the two guys at the top, Kelly Johnson was .357 / .438 in limited leadoff duty and and Langerhans was 2 for 5. Lineup B also allows the Braves to identify a player they can try and trade for that is both an outfielder and a leadoff man.

Further Insight into the Estrada Trade

2005-12-08T11:25:00.000-05:00

What did Schu know and when did he know it? It seems that the Braves were asking Arizona for Cormier and Villarreal from the start. It had Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes scratching his head a bit. Money quote:

“And Byrnes admitted he wondered whether he was doing the right thing when Atlanta asked for two fairly unsung Diamondbacks relievers to get a proven catcher in the prime of his career.”

I know we wanted to dump him on someone, but like I said earlier, I wish we had gotten more in return. It is interesting that while Byrnes is a young first year GM, he was still a bit perplexed at the two pitchers the Braves wanted in return. With all of these relievers we have acquired, Lance Cormier, Oscar Villarreal, and Wes Obermueller, it will be interesting to watch them through spring training to see what kind of adjustments the Braves will have them make.

Meanwhile, Furcal is already getting questions from the LA press about his checkered past.

And another closer may be off the market.

Winter Meetings Maneuvering

2005-12-08T10:18:00.000-05:00

So long Dan Kolb, it’s been fun. Also, let’s thank the Brewers for the loaner, he didn’t really work out so you can have him back. In return why don’t you give us a mid-level reliever, we’re collecting those this winter. Let’s hope the Braves scouting department is right that these guys still have some potential.

On other fronts the Braves have parted ways with the ‘ageless one.’ Looks like he was asking for more money than the Braves thought he was worth. They were probably a bit wary of his decline in the final month of the season where he hit .171 and struck out in one third of his at-bats. What’s weird is that the Braves offered arbitration to Brian Jordan and Eddie Perez. Jordan doesn’t seem to be anything more than a fifth outfielder at this point and Perez is a backup to the backup catcher.

The big pursuit of a shortstop was apparently in a holding pattern as the teams haggle over just who to include. It may become more likely throughout the day that the Braves will pull the trigger with the Devil Rays for both Lugo and Baez now that Wickman and Hoffman are off the market. That also shrinks the list of potential closers that can be acquired via free agency to Todd Jones (which is who I thought we’d end up with all along). But if it is going to be Baez and/or Lugo, then Tampa has got to come way down on the asking price.

Adios Estrada

2005-12-07T15:08:00.000-05:00

It is being reported by ESPN and the AJC that the Braves have traded Johnny Estrada to the Diamondbacks for two pitchers. The Braves would receive Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal from the D-Backs. Both pitchers, ages 25 and 24 respectively, have primarily worked out of the bullpen the last two years. This looks to be a move to add more arms to the pen. Villarreal is probably the hotter commodity here with 3 plus pitches, a slider, two seamer, and four seamer, he is primarily a sinkerballer. This deal may be a sign that the rumored three team trade between the Braves, D-Backs, and D-Rays is dead.

My first impressions of this trade are mixed. While the D-Backs were one of the teams I listed as a possible destination for Estrada, I had thought we would use him as a major chip to get either a shortstop or closer or perhaps one of their better bullpen arms. The fact that we got two average middle relievers makes me think we were just looking to get rid of Estrada and his salary. This seems to be a positive move if you’re a Brian McCann fan, as he will in all likelihood take over as the primary catcher next year. It also seems to indicate the rumors that had him being included in a trade to Tampa Bay are all but over.

Renteria?

2005-12-07T09:02:00.000-05:00

The rumor du jour has Edgar Renteria coming over from Boston as the centerpiece of a 3-way deal that would have Tampa Bay sending Julio Lugo to the Sox, and the Braves shipping Andy Marte and another player to the Rays. The hold up here is that the Braves want the Red Sox to assume a portion of the $30 million remaining on Renteria’s contract. Renteria was a two time gold glove shortstop for the Cardinals in 2002 and 2003, but committed 30 errors for the Red Sox last season and has apparently fallen out of favor with the team. The market for Lugo may be getting thinner with the Cubs acquisition of Juan Pierre from Florida, but even with that pick up they may still be in the market for the Tampa shortstop.

Latest from Days 1 and 2 at the Winter Meetings

2005-12-06T15:28:00.000-05:00

The Braves interest in Tampa Bay’s Lugo seems to be growing, possibly to include Baez. This could become a three-way deal with the D-Backs, but it looks like a possible hang-up could be Tampa’s insistence on McCann. The D-Backs might have been brought into the deal since they are in need of a catcher and would probably take Estrada. While Atlanta is in no rush to replace Furcal (seemingly being happy with Betemit), the Devil Rays will ship Lugo before the meetings end.

Annual Nay Saying in the Media Begins

2005-12-05T13:41:00.000-05:00

Here is the first salvo of ‘how long can they keep winning’ rhetoric from the MSM (Main Stream Media). And apparently someone at ESPN didn’t do their homework, check out the yes/no question #10:

“Do you think the Braves can count on Mike Hampton to be a reliable No. 3 starter behind John Smoltz and Tim Hudson next season?”

Maybe it’s a trick question to see if we’re really paying attention. Apparently 44.6% of the people in ‘Sports Nation’ are not aware that Hampton is out next season. But at least the ‘Sports Nation’ knows better than to bet against the Braves (as evidenced by the results of questions #2).

Speculation, Speculation, Speculation

2005-12-05T11:33:00.000-05:00

Everyone loves speculation! And what else is a blog good for, if not for good ole fashion raw speculation. That’s right, unsubstantiated rumor-mongering run amuck. And the Braves have plenty of holes to fill, and there are plenty of people we could speculate are going to fill them. So without anymore delay, here are the rumors and speculations du jour:

SS: Now that ‘Raffy’ has crossed over to the West-side, we have what looks to be a gaping hole up the middle as well as at the leadoff position. Everyone and their brother has predicted that Tamp Bay’s Julio Lugo is the Braves’ backup plan. The Rays and Braves seem to match up well – we have plenty of young pitching, they need pitching, they have a shortstop and closer available, we need both a shortstop and a closer. Because they are asking for so much in return, we might have to wait these Rays out for a while, but Lugo is a viable option at short – sort of a poor man’s Furcal.

If the Braves choose to go the free agent route, they could try and sign Alex Gonzalez. No, not that Alex Gonzalez, the other Alex Gonzalez. He’s got decent power, an average bat, an above average glove, and he’s coming off a down year for him, so he may be undervalued. But with a .291 career OBA he would not be a viable option leading off.

Lead-off: What do you think about a blast from the past? That’s right, Kenny Lofton is once again a free agent. Even though he’s played for 7 teams in the past 4 years, he did hit .335 with an OBP of .392 last year, and at 38 he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Remember somewhere out there Ricky Henderson is still playing baseball, so maybe it’ a trend with these age-ed speedsters, they keep going and going.

Let’s not forget that Juan Pierre is the last one left in the Marlin’s fire sale. He would be a perfect fit at the top of the Braves lineup, and he’s the kind of player that would thrive under Bobby Cox.

Closer: I still say it’s Todd Jones or Todd Jones. He’s an Atlanta native, might be relatively inexpensive, and would sign for only one or two years. The oft-rumored other half of a Julio Lugo trade is closer Danys Baez. He’s decent, but not great, and he’s been closing for a last place team which is far different than closing for a first place team (as Dan Kolb found out).

But let’s go out on a limb here and ‘speculate’ as to who else we might be able to get. I’m just going to go ahead and throw Joe Nathan’s name out there. We match up well with the Twins, who need a third baseman, and we have Marte with no place to play. It would take a lot to get Nathan, but Marte might be just the right chip. The Twins have other power arms that can close (Romero and Rincon), and they’d be getting rid of salary at the same time (something they love to do). Nathan has an option for ’07, and is not too terribly expensive. He’s also a power closer, not a ground-baller like Kolb.

There’s been some mention of Brad Lidge being available, but I don’t think the Braves and Astros match up well. They would probably need a power outfield bat in return, and we don’t really have anyone that fits that need.

So there it is; rumors and speculation. Now we get to wait and see. But if history is any guide the Braves will not be sitting on their hands.

Schu Interview

2005-12-04T22:50:00.000-05:00

Joe over at Talking Chop just posted the first part of what looks to be a great interview with Braves GM John Schuerholz. Kudos.

Silver Lining Update

2005-12-04T17:52:00.000-05:00

Updating my earlier post of the draft picks the Braves would receive after losing out on Furcal and Farnsworth, it now looks certain that we will get the 7th (Dodgers), 24th (Braves), and 27th (Yankees) picks in next year’s draft. That’s a good sign that the Braves farm system will continue to get even stronger.

Doesn’t Everyone Like Money?

2005-12-04T16:53:00.000-05:00

The more I think about it, the more I don’t blame Furcal for taking the highest per season offer. If someone offers you $3 million more per year than anyone else, then why not choose to sign with them. But signing with the Dodgers at this point in the off-season is a bit surprising. Surprising because of the uncertainty surrounding the Dodgers organization with a new GM and a vacancy at the Manager position and the way in which the former Manager and GM were dismissed. With the Braves or Cubs, you know you're going to play for Bobby Cox or Dusty Baker, and you know who all the coaches are, but the Dodgers haven’t hired a manager and they just hired a new GM two weeks ago. A former front-office employee puts it this way:

“Every time I see some of the decisions being made or some of the people that have been fired or some of the people that were brought into positions who have never spent one hour in baseball, I want to throw up.”

Frank McCourt must have done one hell of a sell job in convincing Furcal that the Dodgers were the place for him in spite of all the uncertainty and turmoil. I wonder if Furcal and his agent really took enough time to make this decision after meeting with the Dodgers’ delegation (which included fellow Dominican Manny Mota) last Thursday. Here is his agent’s take on the meeting:

“Frank McCourt was really impressive. Raffy really liked what he had to say. They want to turn their franchise around, and Frank McCourt has a real passion for the game. Raffy was really impressed.”

This reminds me of the meeting that Tom Hicks had with A-Rod in which the owner made the sell based on the notion of turning the franchise around. For Raffy’s sake let’s hope McCourt keeps promises better than Hicks. Let’s hope that Raffy can co-exist in the same clubhouse as Jeff Kent and Milton Bradley, a far different atmosphere from the Braves’ clubhouse. And, as Baseball Musings points out, let’s hope that Furcal can figure out how to hit at Dodger Stadium.

Cha-Ching

2005-12-04T12:48:00.000-05:00

Sold to the highest bidder, the Los Angeles Dodgers, for $13 million per year.

Respect

2005-12-02T22:19:00.000-05:00

The Chip-ster’s contract restructuring is official. Money quote from Chipper:

“‘The first professional uniform I put on 16 years ago was a Braves uniform, and I wanted to try to make sure its my last,’ Jones said. ‘I want to retire as a Brave, but more importantly, I knew this was something that could help continue the winning tradition we've built and our quest to bring our fans another world championship.’”

Could the restructuring getting done now mean another announcement is forthcoming? So many signs point to Furcal wanting to come back to Atlanta. But if reports are right that the Dodgers are offering him $13 million per year for three years and the Cubs $11 million per year for five years, then there is no doubt that he will have to take less to return to the Braves. How can they justify paying Furcal more than Chipper or Andruw? And after what Chipper did by taking less money per year, how can Furcal run up the price on the Braves?

¿Donde Estrada?

2005-12-02T14:28:00.000-05:00

Though no one seems to be saying it too loudly, I’m betting that Johnny Estrada will not be back with the Braves next year. While he’s a great catcher, he’s arbitration eligible and plays a position in which the Braves have more depth at than virtually any other major league club (with McCann, Pena, Boscan, Sammons, and Salty). So where will he go? The Rockies are looking for a catcher, but the players they are offering don’t seem to match our needs. The Diamondbacks are in need of a solid catcher, and the Padres may have some interest as well. The Angels will be in need of a catcher if Molina leaves, but I don’t think any GM in his right mind would put Estrada and Erstad on the same team after the collision. The Marlins will be hot to deal LoDuca as they continue to dismantle. But he is owed $6.25 million over the next two years which may make Estrada more attractive as clubs pass on LoDuca. This may be one of the items on Schu’s list at the winter meetings next week. All signs point to Furcal’s decision coming before then. Money quote from Schu: "We have enough depth in our organization to be aggressive and do something.”

Fantasy Power Watch

2005-12-02T11:39:00.000-05:00

The Phills are moving their LF fence back and raising the wall:

“The Phillies are poised to remove the first two rows of seats in leftfield at Citizens Bank Park in hopes of making one of baseball's most notorious bandboxes more spacious. The net effect will be to move the fence back 5 feet and raise it from 8 to 10 ½ feet.”

This effectively lowers the HR potential of Burrell, Lieberthal, and Bell as well as the newly acquired Aaron Rowand, all right-handed hitters. It will probably affect the last three a lot more than Burrell. But the other side of that coin is that this move could help guys like Lieber, Lidle, and Padilla, but it will really help Randy Wolf and especially Gavin Floyd (check out his ERA at home).

Security Breach?

2005-12-02T10:16:00.000-05:00

So I was playing around on Google’s free-to-download-and-use aerial photography software Google Earth, and stumbled across some wonderful close-ups of Edwards Air Force Base. It amazed me that you could even look around at Edwards, let alone that there would be two planes that look like SR-71 Blackbirds just sitting on the tarmac. If you would like to see for yourself, then go just east of area code 93524 in Google Earth.

By the way, Google Earth is a neat program to view stadiums from above. Check out the Ted:

More Doffing of the Cap

2005-12-01T12:54:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Obstructed Seats for mention on his blog.

Also, an old-school tip of the cap to my buddy Rico for the mention on his blog.

Bring on the Draft Picks

2005-12-01T12:46:00.000-05:00

So it looks like Farnsworth is headed to the Bronx for $17 million over 3 years, and Furcal is close to a deal with the last remaining lovable losers. In trying to find a silver lining, I think the answer is that the Braves would get 3 first round picks next year. By my count we would get the 12th (Cubs), 24th (Braves), and 27th (Yankees) picks. This is provided we don’t sign anyone between now and December 7th, and after that if they are offered arbitration by their former team, otherwise we would lose our 24th pick to that team.

Subtle Need Not Apply

2005-12-01T11:21:00.000-05:00

Like the president or not, you have to feel sorry for the guy that the people around him just don’t get it. Enough with the banners already.

Bush is single-handedly keeping this guy in a job.

Online Impulse Buy I’m Considering

2005-12-01T10:10:00.000-05:00

The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles are swapping out all the seats in their stadium with new seats as well as nouveau box seats. Check out their pictures of the ‘naked’ Dodger Stadium. But the real crack candy for baseball fans is the sale of the old seats. Now maybe I’m just a little loose in the wallet, but at $250 a piece plus $100 shipping anywhere in the US, I’m almost sold. Though, with that money I could purchase another Braves season ticket. . . but I’ve already got two so let’s not get greedy.

My only dilemma here is what color to get. I’ve already got some old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium seats that are orange, so I’m worried about clashing. Maybe I should steer more towards earth tones. . . Oh who the hell cares, they’ll look great. I really think I’m going to go red since they don’t have anymore Dodger blue.

Here’s a picture of my current Atlanta Fulton County Stadium seats:

Update: It's done! Red seats are on the way. I'm a nut!

Make Both the OF Corners French

2005-12-01T09:08:00.000-05:00

Like I was saying earlier, the Bravos should go after Juan Pierre, and now there is an MSM columnist calling for the same. Terence Moore at the AJC lays out the reasons. Money quote from Trader Jack in the article:

“You know, I like Furcal, but there is nobody who is not replaceable. Look at how the Braves brought in all of those young kids [18 rookies] last year, and they just took off. It’s getting the right players, and that’s the knack that Bobby and John have. They’re always able to get somebody who fits in and can pick them up.”

We’ll probably never hear a rumor about Pierre, it will just happen or it won’t, that’s Schu’s way. Bill Shanks says all the chips will start falling into place once Furcal makes his decision. But for my money, and I did buy two whole season tickets after all, I’d love to see Juan Pierre in a tomahawk (or in Sunday-alternate-jersey red).

Pinto Style

2005-11-30T23:29:00.000-05:00

Hat tip to David at Baseball Musings for a wonderful mention on his site.

Best Deal in Baseball?

2005-11-30T15:44:00.000-05:00

Can anyone beat the $250 season ticket? According to my research at MLB.com, no they can’t. At least no team that has released their schedule has beaten that price yet. There are several teams that have not yet released their season ticket prices that have a shot, such as the Marlins and Royals. The teams that come closest to beating the Braves’ season ticket deal are the Rangers and Rockies at $328 and $405 respectively.

I have compiled the following chart of the lowest season ticket price offered by each team, and I will update it as more information becomes available. I did not include partial plans on this list, only the full season ticket packages.

Team = Lowest Season Ticket Price
Angels = n/a
Astros = $747
A’s = $738
Blue Jays = $645
Braves = $249
Brewers = $648
Cards = $810
Cubs = n/a
D-Rays = $486
D-Backs = $456
Dodgers = n/a
Giants = $840
Indians = $574
M’s = $1053
Marlins = n/a
Mets = n/a
Nats = $574
O’s = $873
Pads = $810
Phils = $1235
Pirates = n/a
Rangers = $328
Reds = $673
Rockies = $405
Royals = n/a
Tigers = $810
Twins = $200*
White Sox = $952
Yanks = n/a

This leads me to ask why, after winning 14 consecutive division titles, are the Braves offering such a discounted season ticket. And why aren’t more people talking about this? You would expect teams that lose year after year to offer discounted tickets, but this is the team with the longest regular season winning streak in professional sports. Is Atlanta really that bad of a baseball market?

Perhaps the Braves are borrowing a page from the Arthur Blank (owner of the Falcons) playbook. When he took over the team several years ago from disinterested owners, he offered fans who wanted to sit in the upper deck full season ticket packages that started at $100. This actually caused the Falcons to sell out just about every game every year since then. These Braves execs may be looking at that and thinking they can duplicate at least part of that success. It’s a whole lot harder to sell out 81 games verses 10, but in offering such an unheard of deal on season tickets they may get more people looking in their direction.

Anyway, I’ll be writing more on this as the season approaches, and as more thoughts on the possible significance of this come to me.

*Update: Thanks to Chuck T. for bringing to my attention that the Twins offer a 'Cheap Seats Special' season ticket for only $200. Here's another case of a winning and competitive club offering some of the cheapest tickets in baseball. There have been a bunch of similarities between the Braves and Twins starting with their worst to first seasons in ’91. They both have strong farm systems and are committed to building from within. And now both offer their fans great ticket deals (though it looks like the Twins were the first to do this). I may write some more on these similarities in the future. I wonder if a Twins fan with ‘Cheap Seats’ season tickets has a blog. I still find such amazingly cheap tickets, well, amazing (and if the Mets offered such a deal then it would be amazin’).

Kyle Might be Getting his Farns-worth

2005-11-30T10:15:00.000-05:00

The NY Daily News is reporting that the Yanks want to add Kyle Farnsworth to their bullpen as a replacement for Tom Gordon to set up Mariano Rivera. They’re throwing money at Farn north of the Eyre / Howry line. ‘Money’ quote:

“The Braves have interest in bringing Farnsworth back, but do not want to meet the expected price.”

If the price for a closer is only $5 million a year, and we ‘do not want to meet that’ yet we apparently still have interest in Farnsworth, then how much do the Braves ‘really’ value a closer. Don’t tell me we’re going to go out and get this year’s Dan Kolb via trade and forego a power arm like Farnsworth. One postseason collapse aside, Farnsworth was by far our best reliever last year, and the only one who seemed to have the temperament for the job.

If we don’t retain Farnsworth the logic and rumblings seem to point to us then only being interested in Todd Jones as a closer acquired via free agency. He lives in Atlanta and would probably be agreeable to some hometown discount. But that brings up another bone of contention with the way the Braves operate sometimes; do we have to insist that everyone give us a hometown discount? Farnsworth lives in Atlanta, but we shouldn’t force him to take $1 to $2 million less because of geographic lineage.

This leads us to the broader question of ‘how are the Braves going to spend their money this winter?’ They don’t seem to be willing to go high enough for Furcal. They don’t seem willing to give Farnsworth half of what B.J. and Billy got. What the hell does Schu have up his sleeve (from here on out I will be referring to Schuerholz as Schu)? How unhappy will Chipper be if we don’t use his restructured contract money on either of these two guys? More to come. . .

Francoeur’s Future

2005-11-29T12:06:00.000-05:00

John Sickels looks into his crystal ball and tells us how Franceour might fare in the coming years. Money quote:

“On the other hand, Francoeur has such good bat speed that he seems able to overcome his over-aggressiveness at the plate, at least often enough to keep his numbers up.”

Overall the piece reads as a glass half empty look at the rookie. Take a look at the possible comps.

There goes my first theory. . .

2005-11-28T19:35:00.000-05:00

It looks like the Mets out-bid the field for Wagner with a four year offer and an option for a fifth. With Wagner they add another over 30 small-framed pitcher. Wagner will certainly be an upgrade over Braden Looper at the back end of the bullpen. Last year Wagner blew 5 fewer saves than did Looper while saving 10 more. Let’s hope Minaya leaves enough in the war chest to go get some arms that can bridge the gap from the starters to Wagner.

Now let’s see how much the Mets dole out to either Molina or Hernandez.

Deconstructing the 2006 Schedule

2005-11-28T17:19:00.000-05:00

The 2006 Braves Schedule has them getting one of their west coast swings out of the way early. The way the season is starting, with three games in L.A. and four in San Fran, you might think that the Braves are back in the NL West. Whereas last year we only had two trips to the Rocky Mountains and beyond, this year we double that number with four trips. We also get to match-up against the Padres 9 times with two trips to PETCO. The Braves did not fare well against the Pads in ’05, going 1-5.

Also in the NL West, we play Colorado two games at home and four games at Coors.

Only 9 out of the 25 games in April are at home, setting up a potentially slow start if the team doesn’t play well on the road next year. And then in May only 12 of 29 games are at home. That means in the first third of the season 62% of the Braves’ games will be played on the road. But that also means more home games in the second two thirds of the season. The theme for the first two months of the season might be survive at or near .500. Then again, that was what they did last year before climbing to the top.

Interleague play has us back exclusively in the AL East. With the money that Toronto and Baltimore expect to spend added to the money that Boston and New York already spend to put competitive teams on the field, the AL East may be the toughest interleague division to match up against. Don’t count the D-Rays out either, with a young and eager team that put on a show the second half of last season, they may be just as tough to beat as the big spenders.

The season ends with a potentially critical rematch of the Braves hosting the Astros for 3 at the Ted.

And we're off. . .

2005-11-28T14:34:00.000-05:00

My first post. . . woohoo!

The Bravos have been rather quiet this offseason, though not until the last few days has anything big happened around baseball, free agent or trade wise. The good news from all those trades (Burkett, Delgado, Thome) is that it effectively weakens two NL East rivals while only strengthening one.

The Marlins are obviously fans of bad sequels, since they are once again plodding down the unilateral disarmament path. How good will Cabrera be as the only potent bat in that lineup (or will it even matter), and how will Dontrelle respond to being the lone ace of the staff? Though their last rebuilding phase eventually led to a World Series, can they really think that will work again? The odds are stacked against them. In the short term at least they will be brutal.

The Phils also dealt away one of their potent bats. This was a better move than the Marlins’ moves, but still leaves their team weaker than it was. Regardless of how ballyhooed Ryan Howard is, I think time may prove him a closer match to Rob Deer than Robin Yount. And can the rest of their streaky batters not only hold it together for a whole year, but finally make it to the top? Still a lot of question marks in Philly.

The Mets made a good move in getting Delgado, though they may have given up Kazmir-lite to get him. Mets fans hope this isn’t the ghost of Mo Vaughn arriving at Shea. For now though, Delgado plugs the hole in the Mets’ lineup that the Piazza drop-off created – good move Minaya.

No doubt Schuerholz wants to counter the Mets’ acquisition of Delgado, and he would love nothing more than to steal Wagner away from them. This may be what he uses the ‘Chipper’ money for instead of re-signing Furcal. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Braves making a run at Juan Pierre either. Getting a leadoff hitter/outfielder like Pierre would allow the Braves to forego a costly long term contract offer to Furcal and use a less expensive option at short.

It’s gonna be a hoppin’ hot stove this winter. . .